As the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit (18th-19th) to be held in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China approaches in a week, attention is focused on the summit diplomacy of the world's major powers.
With the expected summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and the possibility of the first-ever U.S.-China-Russia trilateral summit involving Russian President Vladimir Putin being raised, this year's APEC is emerging as an important diplomatic stage to gauge the direction of the international order.
Coupled with the possibility of a North Korea-China-North Korea summit and the improvement of Korea-China-Japan relations, this APEC is expected to be an opportunity to gauge the strategic competition between the US and China and the security situation in Northeast Asia beyond economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.
The theme of this year's APEC summit is 'Building the Asia-Pacific Community and Promoting Common Prosperity.' China, the chair country, put openness, innovation, and cooperation as keywords, and major agenda items such as regional trade, artificial intelligence (AI) cooperation, and supply chain stability are scheduled to be discussed at the summit.
◇ The leaders of the US and China meet again after two months... 4th meeting of Trump's second term
President Trump and President Xi are expected to sit face to face again about two months after the Washington DC summit last September.
If the meeting between the two leaders takes place, it will be the fourth summit since the inauguration of Trump's second term, following Busan in October of last year, Beijing in May of this year, and Washington in September.
The biggest issue is the implementation of the trade ceasefire agreement.
The two countries agreed in Busan in October last year to suspend some trade retaliatory measures, such as high tariffs and China's rare earth export controls, and to resume purchases of American agricultural products.
Washington then extended the trade truce deadline until January 10th of next year.
However, the United States is complaining that China's promises to supply rare earth elements and purchase American agricultural products are not being sufficiently fulfilled.
On the other hand, a war of nerves continues, with China expressing serious concerns about the US trade restrictions with China.
Export control of cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors and AI is also expected to become a major issue.
If the two leaders reaffirm the implementation of the trade agreement or agree to follow-up negotiations, it is expected that this could serve as an opportunity to reduce uncertainty in the relationship between the two countries.
Managing trade conflict with China is important for President Trump, whose political burden has increased due to his defeat in the midterm elections, and China also needs to create an external environment favorable to economic recovery while avoiding additional tariff pressure from the United States.
However, some analysts say that it will not be easy to improve relations in the short term, given that the conflict between the US and China goes beyond simple trade imbalance and is a structural competition over cutting-edge technology, military and security, and leadership in the international order.
Tensions surrounding the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea, and expansion of military influence in the Indo-Pacific region are considered factors that could strain U.S.-China relations at any time.
◇ Will the first US-China-Russia summit take place? Interested in North Korea-US dialogue amid ‘Synyalta’ observation
The event receiving the most attention in this APEC is whether or not the first trilateral meeting between the leaders of the United States, China, and Russia will be held.
The Russian Kremlin said preparations for the meeting were underway, and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also confirmed on the 4th that it was communicating with relevant countries.
President Trump said he expected to meet with President Xi and Putin on the 8th.
If the leaders of the three countries hold a separate summit locally, it is expected to be the first in history and a mega-event for the international community. Analysis suggests that it will have great symbolic significance in that the three leaders of military powerhouses and major nuclear weapons countries will gather to discuss international issues.
Some compare it to the Yalta Conference at the end of World War II, where the leaders of the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union discussed the postwar international order.
If the so-called 'Synyalta' plan becomes a reality, the war in Ukraine, nuclear disarmament, and international security are likely to be on the agenda.
President Trump is showing interest in discussing nuclear disarmament, including with China and Russia, but China is cautious, saying its nuclear weapons possession scale is significantly different from that of the United States and Russia.
There are observations that it will not be easy to achieve concrete results in the Ukraine war as the interests of the parties involved are complex.
In relation to this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said, "It is dangerous for Russia to discuss a new security system in Europe," and added, "We do not want 'Yalta 2.0'. We do not want to be divided by Russia."
Accordingly, some analysts say that this meeting is likely to be an event focused on easing tensions and communicating between leaders rather than reorganizing the international order.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out on the 9th (local time) that there is a possibility that the tripartite summit itself may be canceled due to differences in opinion between the United States and China over the meeting method. President Trump reportedly wants an opportunity to freely share opinions on the spot, but President Xi is said to be fighting back, demanding that only the promised statement be released.
The Korean Peninsula issue is also a matter of interest.
With the recent series of high-level exchanges between North Korea and China, there is speculation that President Xi and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un may hold a summit meeting around APEC.
President Trump also showed interest in dialogue with Chairman Kim, raising the possibility that the North Korea-China summit could lead to contact between the leaders of North Korea and the United States.
However, it is unclear whether the actual talks will take place as North Korea is opposing the United States' demands for denuclearization.
Some experts are weighing the possibility that even if the North Korea-US meeting is held, it will be after APEC, given that China will not want a situation where APEC's main agenda is obscured.
Even if dialogue between North Korea and the United States succeeds, differences of opinion over recognition of North Korea's status as a nuclear state and methods of denuclearization negotiations are obstacles.
◇ Xi Jinping, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term, will likely show off his global influence... Relations between Korea, China, and Japan are also of interest.
China is expected to use this APEC as an opportunity to show off its economic and technological development achievements and expand its influence in the international community.
This is the third time in 12 years that China is hosting the APEC summit, following Shanghai in 2001 and Beijing in 2014.
The host city, Shenzhen, is a city that symbolizes China's reform and openness and is a center of innovative industries with a high concentration of high-tech companies, and is expected to be the optimal stage to showcase China's openness and technological independence.
China, which has criticized the United States' protectionist policies, is expected to try to secure support from the international community by emphasizing multilateralism and free trade and representing the interests of the Global South (a general term for emerging and developing countries mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere).
It also coincides with China's domestic political schedule.
At the recently held 5th plenary session of the 20th Central Committee, the Communist Party of China confirmed that it would hold the 21st Party Congress in the second half of next year and began reorganizing its leadership.
As President Xi is expected to seek a fourth consecutive term at the party congress next year, some interpret this APEC as an opportunity to accumulate diplomatic achievements and highlight his leadership.
Summit diplomacy with Northeast Asian countries is also of interest.
President Lee Jae-myung and President Xi are expected to discuss follow-up achievements in improving Korea-China relations following the Gyeongju summit in November last year and the Beijing summit in January this year.
Economic and trade cooperation, supply chain stability, expansion of human exchanges, as well as North Korea issues and the situation on the Korean Peninsula are expected to be discussed as major agenda items.
On the other hand, the outlook for the China-Japan summit is not bright.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply in November last year due to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks suggesting Taiwan's intervention in an emergency, and China is demanding that Japan withdraw his remarks despite Japan's conciliatory attitude.
It has been reported that there is also speculation within Japan that a China-Japan summit will be difficult to achieve.
This Shenzhen APEC is expected to be a stage to test how well China can expand its leadership in international cooperation and stably manage the US-China strategic competition and security conflicts in Northeast Asia.
