After pressure from Belém for a road map, understand what the challenges are and what to expect from COP31

One year after COP30, held in Belém, Pará, the United Nations (UN) climate conference once again brings together representatives from almost 200 countries, this time in Antalya, Turkey.

COP31 begins next Monday (9) and continues until November 20, with one of its main challenges transforming the commitments made by countries to tackle global warming into concrete actions.

One of the biggest expectations lies precisely in the future of the so-called "road map" for the transition away from fossil fuels, defended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and dozens of countries during the COP in Belém.

The proposal, which seeks to establish ways to reduce the world's dependence on oil, gas and coal, failed to enter the final agreement at COP30, due to resistance from countries that are economically dependent on these fuels.

Despite this, the Brazilian presidency of the conference was committed to drafting the document on its own and presented, last Tuesday (3), two international roadmaps: one for the energy transition and the other to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.

Now, the question is whether these proposals will gain political support in Türkiye and be incorporated into the next climate negotiations or whether they will remain just voluntary initiatives.

The challenge occurs at a particularly difficult time for international diplomacy, marked by geopolitical conflicts, the global energy crisis and the need to increase resources allocated to countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Therefore, for environmentalists, the outcome of COP31 will depend mainly on the ability of countries to transform existing commitments into public policies, investments and measures capable of effectively reducing emissions.

"The road maps for these two agendas need to leave the field of intentions and become verifiable policies, investments and commitments", says Alexandre Prado, climate change leader at WWF-Brazil.

Stela Herschmann, international policy leader at the Climate Observatory (OC), assesses that the conference will be a test for governments' willingness to put into practice the measures proposed by Brazil.

"COP31 begins with a map telling how to do this and more, which everyone can and should start. It remains to be seen whether leaders will have the courage to do it", he states.

But what is COP31, how important is the road map presented by Brazil and what will be the main challenges of the negotiations?

Below, in this report, you will see:

What is COP31 and who will lead the conference?

What happened from COP30 in Belém?

What is the roadmap away from fossil fuels?

What should be discussed at COP31?

What to expect from Brazil's participation?

Structure of COP31, the UN climate conference that will be held between November 9 and 20, 2026, in Antalya, Turkey. — Photo: UN Climate Change/Kiara Worth

What is COP31 and who will lead the conference?

COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the main international meeting to discuss measures to combat the climate crisis.

Held annually since 1995, with the exception of 2020 due to the pandemic, the conference brings together representatives from governments, scientists, environmental organizations, companies, indigenous peoples and members of civil society.

It is at this meeting that countries discuss how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, finance climate actions and prepare for the impacts of global warming.

COP31, however, will have an unprecedented feature: for the first time, two countries will share responsibilities for conducting the conference.

Turkey will be responsible for the official presidency and organization of the meeting, under the command of the Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, Murat Kurum.

Australia, represented by the Minister of Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, will be responsible for negotiations between the countries.

The division was the result of an agreement reached during COP30, after a dispute between the two governments to host the conference.

In practice, the arrangement means that Australia will have the task of seeking consensus among almost 200 countries, while Turkey will be responsible for the formal presidency and the so-called Action Agenda, which brings together voluntary initiatives and commitments.

This division will also be a political test for the conference, as the two nations will have to work together to achieve a final outcome.

The hosts also face questions about their own energy policies. Turkey maintains a heavy dependence on coal to generate electricity, and Australia is among the world's largest exporters of this fuel.

For Mine Doğan, WWF-Türkiye conservation manager for climate, energy and biodiversity, the conference represents an opportunity for the country to demonstrate international leadership.

"This leadership is built on credibility, and national policies fully aligned with the 1.5°C target can offer a solid basis for this", he states.

Flags of Türkiye and the UN at the headquarters of COP31, a climate conference that will be held from November 9th to 20th, 2026, in Antalya, Turkey. — Photo: UN Climate Change/Kiara Worth

What is the roadmap away from fossil fuels?

The road map is a document prepared by the Brazilian presidency of COP30 to guide countries in gradually reducing dependence on oil, natural gas and coal.

The proposal considers that each country has a different reality and foresees three main fronts:

Consumption: reduce the use of fossil fuels in transport, industries and buildings.

Production: gradually reduce the extraction of oil, gas and coal and expand the use of renewable sources.

Economy: assess the impacts of the transition on jobs, investments and revenue.

The document also argues that the reduction in production follows the drop in consumption, to avoid supply problems and price fluctuations.

Despite recognizing the importance of the initiative, environmental organizations point out the lack of clear goals and deadlines.

Greenpeace also criticizes the absence of a recommendation to stop the opening of new oil exploration areas.

Activist protests with a sign saying "no more fossil fuels" at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Dubai, COP 28. — Photo: REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

What happened from COP30 in Belém?

COP30, held in November 2025, ended with advances in areas such as adaptation and climate financing, but left pending one of the main discussions defended by the Brazilian government: the creation of an international plan to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

During the meeting, Lula defended that the countries establish a roadmap to put into practice a historic decision taken at COP28, in Dubai, in 2023.

At the time, for the first time, governments recognized in a UN climate agreement the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

The commitment, however, did not establish mandatory deadlines or define how this transition should happen.

Therefore, in Belém, Brazil tried to advance in the construction of a "road map", an expression used to describe a plan with steps, measures and guidelines that would help countries to gradually abandon these fuels.

The proposal received support from more than 80 countries, but faced resistance during negotiations and ended up being left out of the final decision.

Faced with the impasse, the president of COP30, ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, announced that the Brazilian presidency would prepare the documents voluntarily, without the need for approval from other governments.

The two itineraries were presented in Brasília last Tuesday (3), a few days before the opening of COP31.

According to the Brazilian presidency, the documents were created based on international consultations and seek to offer different paths, taking into account the economic and energy conditions of each country.

But there is an important limitation: road maps are not international agreements and do not oblige governments to adopt their recommendations.

For the Climate Observatory, the priority in Antalya will be to ensure that the documents are politically recognized and that countries are committed to developing their own national plans.

Greenpeace also advocates that the conference make this call, starting with developed countries, which have greater historical responsibility for emissions and more resources to finance the transition.

"We hope that the global Road Map, launched by Brazil, will be received, and that COP31 will call for all countries to develop their own national roadmaps", says Anna Cárcamo, climate policy specialist at Greenpeace Brazil.

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Aerial view shows deforested area of the Amazon Rainforest in Humaitá, Amazonas, on August 7, 2024. — Photo: REUTERS/Adriano Machado

What should be discussed at COP31?

Although several topics are on the conference agenda, experts and environmental organizations point out five major themes that should focus the discussions:

Energy transition and fossil fuels;

Climate finance;

Just transition;

Adaptation to climate change;

Deforestation, forests and oceans.

See below what is at stake in each of them.

1 - Energy transition and fossil fuels

One of the main challenges of COP31 will be to define how to continue the discussion on reducing the use of oil, gas and coal.

Despite the launch of the Brazilian road map, it is still unclear whether governments will accept to incorporate the document into the conference's official decisions.

The Turkish presidency's main focus in the energy sector is a proposal known as "35 by 35", which aims to increase the share of electricity in global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035.

In practice, the idea is to expand the use of electricity in activities that currently depend directly on fossil fuels, such as transport, industry and heating buildings.

This includes, for example, replacing gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles with electric models and expanding the use of industrial equipment powered by electricity.

The proposal was presented by the Turkish presidency as a voluntary commitment that countries can support.

The problem, according to environmentalists, is that increasing electricity consumption does not necessarily mean reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

This is because electricity can also be produced by burning coal, oil and natural gas.

Therefore, organizations such as Greenpeace and the Climate Observatory argue that the goal is directly linked to the expansion of renewable energy and the effective replacement of fossil fuels.

The Climate Observatory also warns that electrification cannot replace the broader discussion on abandoning fossil fuels, especially because the Turkish proposal does not, in itself, establish limits on the production of these fuels.

For WWF-Brazil, success will depend on countries' ability to transform emissions reduction targets into public policies and investments.

"There is no more room for climate goals that do not translate into effective emissions reductions", says Alexandre Prado.

2 - Climate finance

Another central theme will be climate financing, that is, resources intended to help countries reduce their emissions and face the impacts of global warming.

This is one of the most difficult discussions at UN conferences because it involves disagreements over how much money should be offered, who should pay and which countries should receive the resources.

At COP29, held in Azerbaijan, governments agreed to a new target of mobilizing at least US$300 billion per year for developing countries by 2035, under the leadership of developed nations.

The broader objective of reaching US$1.3 trillion annually by the same period was also established, considering different public and private sources.

In Belém, the Brazilian presidency sought to advance this discussion through an international roadmap prepared in partnership with Azerbaijan.

At COP31, Brazil is expected to present an update to this document, indicating ways to expand resource mobilization.

But one of the main divergences remains: developing countries want guarantees that they will receive more public money, without relying mainly on loans that could increase their debts.

For Tatiana Oliveira, leader of WWF-Brazil's international strategy, governments need to demonstrate that financial commitments can be transformed into effectively available resources.

"Without fair financing, there will be no possible transition – and the countries and populations that contributed least to the crisis will continue to pay the highest bill", he states.

The theme also involves a promise made at COP30: to triple funding for adaptation to climate change by 2035.

The problem is that the Belém agreement did not clearly establish what value should serve as a reference for this increase.

Therefore, environmentalists ask that COP31 move forward in defining a target of at least US$120 billion annually for adaptation, as well as mechanisms to monitor compliance with the commitment.

A worker walks behind solar panels installed on the roof of a Yingli Solar factory in Baoding, China, in June 2011. — Photo: REUTERS/David Gray

3 - Just transition

Another important result expected for COP31 is an agreement on the functioning of the so-called Just Transition Mechanism.

The creation of this mechanism was approved during COP30, in Belém, but it is still necessary to establish how it will work, what its responsibilities will be and where the resources will come from to put it into practice.

The idea is to help countries make changes to their economies without leaving workers and communities behind.

In practice, this means, for example, ensuring that workers in regions dependent on coal mining have access to employment opportunities, professional training and social protection as these activities are replaced by less polluting alternatives.

The mechanism must also consider the needs of developing countries, which often face greater difficulties in financing these transformations.

During a presentation on Brazilian preparations for the conference, the ambassador