Apple may be preparing to enter a smartphone segment that has spent years trying to move beyond its niche status.
In August, the company announced its next major product event for September 9, where it is expected to unveil its next-generation iPhones. While Apple has not confirmed it, industry reports and leaks suggest that the biggest announcement could be its first-ever foldable iPhone, rumoured to be called the "iPhone Ultra".
If that happens, Apple would be entering the foldable market at a rather unusual moment.
The overall smartphone market is shrinking at a record pace. Foldables, meanwhile, are one of the few parts of the market that are still growing.
According to IDC’s latest forecast, global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units. That is significantly worse than the 13.9% decline IDC had forecast just three months ago and would be the steepest annual contraction the industry has ever recorded.
While almost every other part of the smartphone market is expected to contract this year, foldables are still growing.
IDC expects global foldable smartphone shipments to rise 12.6% in 2026 to 22.9 million units. Growth is expected to accelerate to 18% in 2027.
But Apple’s arrival could give that market a much bigger push.
Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President, Client Devices, IDC, told ET Online that Apple could capture more than 30% of the global foldable market by next year, making it the biggest brand in the category.
He expects Apple to ship more than 3 million foldables this year and around 10 million units in the first 12 months.
All of this, despite a price that could be around $2,500.
Jeronimo said that the new iPhone could drive a 13% increase in the market in 2026, with consumers likely to use financing programmes to buy the expensive device.
That is important because Apple does not need to make its first foldable cheap. In fact, it may be entering a market that is already becoming more expensive.
Counterpoint Research expects the global average selling price of foldable smartphones to rise 18% in 2026. The market is also moving towards more expensive book-style foldables.
In 2025, more than half of foldables were priced below $1,200 at wholesale prices, while around one-third were priced above $1,600.
This year, Counterpoint expects phones priced above $1,600 to account for 60% of foldable shipments, while those below $1,200 fall below 30%.
So a $2,500 iPhone may sound steep compared with a regular smartphone. But for the audience Apple is likely targeting, the price may be less of a barrier.
And financing could make that price easier to manage.
This is where the foldable iPhone could become more important for Apple and potentially for the smartphone industry.
People are holding on to their smartphones for longer, with replacement cycles extending to around four years, according to Counterpoint Research. The trend is expected to continue through 2026 and 2027 as higher memory and component costs push up device prices.
A foldable gives Apple another way to make people spend at the premium end without having to compete in the cheaper parts of the market.
Prachir Singh, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, told ET Online that Apple's entry into foldables could have a bigger impact on growing the overall market than immediately changing brand shares.
“It will increase consumer awareness and confidence in foldables, while Apple’s strong premium user base and ecosystem will encourage more iPhone users to consider a foldable device,” he said.
Foldables have been around for years. Samsung has launched eight generations of them, while Chinese smartphone makers have continued to experiment with thinner designs, better hinges and larger displays.
Yet foldables remain a tiny part of the overall smartphone market.
Counterpoint estimates they accounted for just 1.6% of global smartphone shipments in 2025.
That is despite the segment growing at roughly 60% CAGR between 2019 and 2025.
The research firm expects global foldable shipments to rise from 19.6 million units in 2025 to around 38.6 million by 2029, implying an 18.4% CAGR.
Apple could prove to be a major catalyst for that growth, backed by a vast user base accustomed to paying premium prices for iPhones. Counterpoint Research data shows Apple captured 20% of the global smartphone market during April-June 2026, trailing only Samsung.
More consumers buying foldables would mean more developers designing apps for larger screens. More manufacturers would have an incentive to invest in hinges, displays, batteries and thinner form factors.
The obvious question is whether Apple can immediately take the foldable crown from Samsung. Probably not.
Samsung has an established foldable portfolio, years of experience and an early-mover advantage. But Apple doesn't necessarily need to win the market that already exists.
It could make the market bigger.
Counterpoint expects foldable display panel shipments for smartphones to grow at a 19% CAGR between 2025 and 2029, reaching 53 million panels.
More demand means more scale. More scale could mean better economics. And better economics could eventually mean lower prices.
