After Brexit, Breturn? Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised several options for bringing the United Kingdom closer to the European Union (EU) on Tuesday at the Labor conference.
This is the first time, ten years after the referendum in favor of Brexit, that a serving British Prime Minister has publicly made this type of speech.
Andy Smith, director of research in political science at the Émile Durkheim Center at Sciences Po Bordeaux and Aurélien Antoine, holder of the Chair of Comparative Law and Politics at the Jean-Monnet University of Saint-Etienne and director of the Brexit Observatory, invite us to take these words with caution. If they mark a change in tone, the Prime Minister is not the decision-maker in the matter and the conditions do not currently appear to be ripe for such a step backwards.
What is the outcome of Brexit?
The referendum on the United Kingdom's departure from the EU took place in 2016 and was effective in 2020. “What Andy Burnham said is true, that is to say that Brexit has absolutely not resolved the immigration problem,” points out Aurélien Antoine. He even went deeper into it with regard to migratory movements coming from third countries to Europe. »
Contrary to what the pro-Brexit promised, leaving the EU “has not strengthened the position of the British at the commercial level, in terms of inflation, ease of trade,” he adds. It also failed to attract “brains from all over the world”, as the Brexiteers had promised.
The Prime Minister, previously pro-Brexit, invites in his speech not to cut oneself off from “natural partners”, points out the director of the Brexit observatory. It is in this sense that he does not exclude the option of returning to the EU. “Well, afterwards, concretely and legally, it’s a little more complicated,” he adds.
Can we imagine a reintegration of the United Kingdom into the EU soon?
We must first remember that the United Kingdom is not a third state like any other, in the same way as Switzerland or Norway for example. Instead of reintegration, we can imagine, for example, customs agreements or a return to the single market, like Norway which is part of the EU trade zone.
Rejoining is a different story. When the United Kingdom left the EU, it “benefited from numerous exemptions on certain aspects of Union law, in particular Schengen, on the single currency, on other aspects,” recalls Aurélien Antoine. It is not at all certain that the European Union will agree to start again on the basis of the day of departure from the United Kingdom, he specifies. We would then have to start from scratch. » Rejoining also means accepting all the achievements of the EU, which risks creating debates between the parties and sometimes even within them.
“The Prime Minister said that it was possible to consider that such a commitment would be in Labour’s next electoral programme,” notes Andy Smith. But it’s not more concrete than that. » Besides, the decision does not rest with the Prime Minister, even if he is leader of the Labor Party, there will need to be an internal decision-making process. And in the next elections, “Labor will find itself face-to-face with a populist party that is very anti-European Union,” he warns.
“A complete re-accession will open a period of negotiation that will still be quite tough, and, in my opinion, it is not at all the right time at the moment, neither for the British, nor for the European Union, given the global unrest that we are experiencing,” believes Aurélien Antoine. Andy Smith shares his analysis: “I think the conditions are not ripe for a calm debate in the United Kingdom.” If by chance this option becomes necessary, it will be necessary to go through a new referendum.
How has public opinion evolved on this subject?
Farmers would see a positive return to the EU, the same for the business sector of the “City” or industrialists. “But so far, the promoters of this scenario have tended to keep a low profile, because they consider that in terms of political parties, the situation is not favorable to them,” points out Andy Smith.
Obviously the pro-Europeans are champing at the bit but in the opinion of Aurélien Antoine, the concern of British citizens is not to undo Brexit but rather “their purchasing power, international security and the environment. »
All our information on Brexit
If we look back a little, the accession of the United Kingdom in 1975 to the EU was considered “a lifeline” in the face of the economic crisis generated by the oil crises, believes the director of the observatory. That is to say, there was no “great political will or buy-in” comparable, for example, to the situation in the six founding countries of the EU. Be careful not to repeat this error of a hasty return.
