A bubble, a purge, then printing money. Guest of the Unchained podcast, Arthur Hayes describes (once again) a scenario in which debt linked to artificial intelligence would cause a financial crisis around 2028. The authorities would then intervene to prevent its extension, for the benefit of Bitcoin and other liquidity-sensitive assets. The co-founder of BitMEX does not question the usefulness of AI. Rather, he believes that markets are confusing revolutionary technology with the very expensive real estate infrastructure needed to make it work.
Key Points
Arthur Hayes places a possible crisis in financing AI infrastructure around mid-2028
Morgan Stanley estimates global data center needs at nearly $3 trillion between 2025 and 2028
A growing part of these investments is based on debt and off-balance sheet arrangements
Arthur Hayes anticipates a massive monetary intervention from which Bitcoin could benefit after an initial phase of decline
AI bubble: Arthur Hayes fears debt crisis
Data centers combine buildings, electrical connections, cooling systems and processors that are quickly outdated. For Arthur Hayes, this whole looks more like a real estate project financed by debt than a technology company capable of justifying very high valuations.
The size of the bet gives weight to this comparison. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta together are expected to invest more than $630 billion in 2026, mainly in AI, according to Reuters. Morgan Stanley further estimates that global data center construction will require nearly $3 trillion between 2025 and 2028, about half of which could not be covered by expected cash flows.
Debt already takes complex forms. Meta concluded a $27 billion agreement with Blue Owl to finance its Hyperion center in Louisiana, in which the group retains only 20% of the capital. Reuters presents this operation as the largest private financing transaction ever carried out by Meta. The Financial Times has documented more than $120 billion in spending shifted to off-balance sheet vehicles by several industry players.
That's why Mr. Hayes imagines a breakdown when investors stop rewarding increased spending and demand results. Lenders would then become more reluctant, certain projects could no longer be refinanced and part of the debts would return to bank balance sheets.
He compares this mechanism to the end of the internet bubble and the excesses of real estate credit before 2008. The 2028 calendar, however, remains a personal hypothesis. He mentions in particular a growing political protest against data centers, but there is no evidence to precisely date a possible reversal.
Bitcoin facing the monetary response imagined by Arthur Hayes
The second part of his thesis is based on the reaction of the authorities. Speaking on the Unchained podcast, the co-founder of BitMEX believes that Washington would not let a sector that has become central to the American economic story collapse. Rate cuts, public guarantees, bond buybacks or further expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet would then make it possible to absorb the losses.
Bitcoin would benefit, according to him, from this creation of liquidity thanks to its capped supply. He even considers that since 2025 AI has captured part of the capital that would otherwise have flowed into cryptocurrencies. The bursting of the bubble would therefore end up reversing the movement.
The first reaction could nevertheless be brutal. In March 2020, Bitcoin lost almost half of its value in one week during the global rush to the dollar. Monetary and budgetary interventions then accompanied its rise to $69,000 in November 2021, without constituting the sole cause.
