AfD election success in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania raises economic questions

In the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won 43.8 percent of the votes, even though the Office for the Protection of the Constitution there classified it as "certainly right-wing extremist." And the party also believes it has good chances in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections are taking place at the weekend. This is not good news for the economy - for example because there will be a shortage of skilled workers in the future if immigrants are to leave the country, as the party is demanding. “If the AfD were to implement it like this, it would harm the country economically and in other areas,” says economist Joachim Ragnitz.

The deputy head of the Dresden branch of the ifo Institute is a guest in the new episode of Is that a bubble?, ZEIT's economic podcast about money, power and justice. Joachim Ragnitz has not only been researching the economy in East Germany for years, he has also lived in Saxony-Anhalt for a long time. He explains why the AfD is so popular there, as well as in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: "People are dissatisfied with the general political and economic situation." Their voting decision is primarily a protest against the established parties. Ragnitz says that very few people have probably read the AfD program.

The economy is weakening in both federal states. A lot has happened in Saxony-Anhalt over the last few decades, says Ragnitz. But chemistry, the country's most important industry, is in crisis. The only sector that is booming is the healthcare industry – driven by demographic change. However, the industry is not generating any significant growth. There are also past mistakes, says Ragnitz. In the 1990s, the state lived well beyond its means and incurred high levels of debt - with the result that there is still no money for important investments, such as better infrastructure.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a lot depends on the shipyards and tourism, both of which are concentrated on the coast. There is also great dissatisfaction among people in many parts of the country. But the success of the AfD also has to do with federal politics, says Joachim Ragnitz. But what does this mean for the discussion about the current reform package? And what needs to happen for the economy to grow faster again? That's what this episode is about too.

Guests of the two hosts Carla Neuhaus and Jens Tönnesmann are, in addition to the ifo researcher Ragnitz, the ZEIT colleague Marc Widmann, who reports on his research in Saxony-Anhalt. You can read his piece in which he explains how entrepreneurs there view the AfD here.