Sweden's Social Democrats remain the strongest force despite a poor result

It is one of their worst results in around 100 years and yet Sweden's Social Democrats are celebrating. The first forecasts already show that they remain the strongest force in parliament and their left-green party bloc is just ahead of the parties in the right-wing government camp. Party leader Magdalena Andersson is hoping to become head of government again after four years in opposition: "If the end result looks as it appears, Sweden will get a new government," she said in the evening.

But what exactly that might look like is still completely open. The two party blocs are so close to each other that the exact majority ratio will probably only be determined with the official final result. And even if the left-green block is just ahead, Andersson has a problem. She would need the support of all other three parties in her bloc. The socialist Left Party said during the election campaign: Our support will only be available if we are in the government. But the left-liberal Center Party rejects this. So could there be a laughing third party?

Prime Minister Kristersson wants to organize a majority

At least that's what incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seems to be hoping from the moderates. Although the election results make it difficult to form a government, his party is in no hurry. It is more important to do it right than to do it quickly. He announces that he will try to organize a majority. But what that might look like remains to be seen. His plan before the election was to bring the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats into the government. They had already supported Kristersson's conservative-liberal minority government for the past four years.

Now they should also get ministerial positions. But for the first time since they came into power in 2010, the Sweden Democrats achieved a worse result in a parliamentary election than the previous time. Party leader Jimmie Akesson admits the losses, but says at the election party: "Nevertheless, I think we have gained something in this election campaign: There are significantly more people in our country who are no longer uncomfortable saying out loud that you are a Sweden Democrat. On the contrary: you are proud of it!"

Surprising defeat of the Sweden Democrats

The defeat of the Sweden Democrats surprised many here in Sweden - most of all the party itself. Party leader Akesson suspects that the reason was borrowed votes for the Liberals. They threatened to fail at the four percent hurdle in surveys, but now they have made it into parliament. Mats Knutson, political commentator on Swedish television svt, suspects something else: "Jimmie Akesson had the clear ambition to sit in the next government at all costs. The party has shown itself to be a bit more pragmatic and less radical. That probably didn't sit well with all previous voters."

The day after the election in Sweden, there doesn't seem to be a clear winner, but there is a clear loser. For a long time, the Sweden Democrats only knew one direction: upwards. Initially separated from the other parties in parliament with a firewall, they gradually became too big to ignore. This election should see the last remnants of the firewall removed. Instead, the right-wing populists have to realize that the road to power is rockier than expected.