According to the data set shared by security sources, symbolic actions such as propaganda, rallies and graffiti will dominate global far-right activities in the first half of 2026, instead of heavy violent acts; While 255 cases were examined in 30 countries, a concentration was observed in the USA, Europe, India and Australia, and it is stated that ideological motifs were intertwined.
AI-generated summary
The data set was prepared by examining action types and ideological motifs through 255 far-right cases in 30 countries in the first half of 2026.
Security sources shared information on a case-based dataset on global far-right activities in the first half of 2026.
Accordingly, current strategic analyzes reveal that the qualitative transformation in the organizational structure and radicalization processes, rather than the quantitative dimension of far-right violence in the Western world, has become decisive.
By tracking developments ranging from propaganda production to actual acts of violence, the data set shows that the threat does not remain on a discursive level but has gained an operational dimension.
In the study, where dispersed and multi-component threats were classified and examined in terms of geographical distribution, action types and ideological motifs, the actions seen in a total of 255 far-right cases in 30 countries were recorded in four categories: heavy violent acts and attempts, assault, insults and threats, graffiti and declarations, rallies/press releases, concerts and marches.
In the study, cases were included in a single category according to the dominant discursive target of the perpetrator or action, and in overlapping cases, the prominent narrative was taken as basis.
As a result of examining the data, it is seen that the cases are concentrated in the same geography. It is noted that the ideological motifs used such as anti-Semitism, anti-Islam, racial/ethnic based, anti-immigrant and foreigner, anti-government and system-based motivations are not mutually exclusive and are intertwined, and this situation is frequently seen especially in racial/ethnic and anti-immigrant and anti-foreign based motivations.
The majority of the 255 cases are in the US, Europe, India and Australia.
The vast majority of the total 255 cases are observed geographically in the USA, Europe, India and Australia. Direct acts and attempts of serious violence such as armed or bomb attacks, arson and murder constitute 14.5 percent of the total with 37 cases.
In contrast, discursive, symbolic and mobilizing action types appear to be clearly dominant, accounting for approximately 85.5 percent of the total. Accordingly, protests such as rallies/press statements, concerts and marches increased to 31.8 percent with 81 cases; graffiti and leaflets reached 30.2 percent with 77 cases; Provocative actions such as assault, insult and threat correspond to 23.5 percent with 60 cases.
This distribution shows that the center of gravity of far-right actions has shifted to propaganda and mobilization-based activities rather than completed attacks.
When action motives are examined, there are 76 racial/ethnic-based cases, and this category constitutes the largest category with 29.8 percent.
Data and percentages in other categories were recorded as follows: Anti-immigrant and anti-foreigner sentiment, 24.4 percent with 62 cases; Anti-Islamic sentiment is 16 percent with 41 cases; anti-management and anti-system (accelerationism) 12.2 percent with 31 cases; Anti-Semitism, 11 percent, with 28 cases; the other 17 cases are 6.7 percent.
At the country level, the USA ranks first by far with 82 cases. The USA is followed by the United Kingdom with 33, Italy with 20 and Spain with 16. While racially based motivation is dominant in the USA with 40 cases, anti-immigrant and anti-foreign sentiment comes to the fore in the UK with 14 cases.
Radical right extremism has evolved into a dispersed ecosystem over the past 10 years
Radical right extremism has changed form in the last 10 years, turning from a visible leadership and organizational structure into a decentralized, dispersed ecosystem that has become widespread under the influence of digital subculture and whose contact surface with mainstream politics has expanded.
This transformation, which makes it difficult to monitor and prevent the phenomenon, on the one hand, makes the threat less visible, and on the other hand, it also leads to an increase in social acceptance as a result of the activities of far-right groups being moved predominantly to the digital space and the normalization of radical discourses over time.
As a matter of fact, the structures in question, ranging from traditional offline "neo-Nazi" circles to online communities, have gone beyond being a problem for law enforcement agencies and have become an issue requiring a joint struggle for democratic institutions, technology platforms and the public.
The movement of the center of gravity of far-right movements from established organizations to online channels causes a structural problem that weakens the diagnosis of crime. In this environment where conspiracy theories and violent discourses are normalized, the distinction between punishable action and speech within the scope of freedom of expression becomes blurred.
Far-right ideologies positioned on the axis of neo-Nazism, white supremacism and accelerationism create an integrated threat ecosystem by articulating anti-immigrant, Islamophobic and anti-Semitic discourses, conspiracy narratives and anti-institutional discourses within a single framework.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The increase and propaganda effect of far-right actions in the digital sphere will continue.
Likely · Within months
The combination and intertwining of ideological motifs will create more complex threat profiles.
Possible · Within months

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