While the price of natural gas increases in November futures contracts in the Netherlands-based TTF, risks in the Middle East and low tank occupancy rates affect the markets.
Natural gas prices in Europe increased by 1.3 percent to 82.50 euros per megawatt-hour, due to tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and increasing geopolitical tensions.
AI-generated summary
The occupancy rate of natural gas tanks in Europe is below the average of the last 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in global LNG trade.
In the Netherlands-based TTF, which is considered the reference for natural gas pricing in Europe, the megawatt-hour price of natural gas in November futures contracts ended Friday at 81.43 euros.
Prices increased by 1.3 percent compared to the closing date at 09.45 today, reaching 82.50 euros.
The increase in prices was due to increasing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tension in the region, which increased the risks to LNG supply. Before the war, approximately 20 percent of global LNG trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced that a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified ammunition from the pier side and a fire broke out on the ship.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also announced that a super tanker trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz hit a naval mine and an explosion occurred in the engine room of the ship after the impact.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump's announcement that Russia and Ukraine agreed on an energy ceasefire that will take effect immediately has partially eased supply concerns in the energy markets.
Stating that the two countries agreed not to attack mutual energy facilities despite the ongoing war, Trump called for the agreement to be adhered to.
Cold waves can increase fragility
On the other hand, according to European Gas Infrastructure (GIE) data, the occupancy rate of natural gas tanks in European Union countries is at 73.6 percent.
This rate remains below the average of 87 percent in the same period of the last 5 years.
Although the occupancy rate in warehouses in Europe has increased steadily in recent weeks, expectations of colder weather in the autumn bring the risk of an early start of the heating season and an increase in natural gas consumption.
In its 2026-2027 Winter Supply Outlook report published last week, the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG) reported that Europe's natural gas system has the flexibility to meet winter demand, but limited LNG supply may cause the occupancy rate in warehouses to fall well below 30 percent at the end of winter.
The report warned that this situation could increase Europe's vulnerability to cold waves that may occur in the late winter and that low stock levels could make it difficult to refill warehouses next summer.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Cold weather waves can reduce the occupancy rate in warehouses to below 30 percent.
Likely · Within months

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