McKinsey Zhou Ningren: Future competition in China’s banking industry will be more about competition in value creation capabilities

China News Service, September 23 (Zhong Yu) Where will the competition in China’s banking industry go in the future? Zhou Ningren, McKinsey’s global senior managing partner and head of China’s financial institutions consulting business, recently pointed out in an interview that for China’s banking industry, future competition will not only be a competition in scale, but will be more about competition in value creation capabilities. "In the future, institutions that can effectively combine technological capabilities, customer insights, wealth management and international services will have a better chance of standing out in the new round of competition."

McKinsey research shows that the net profit of the global banking industry will reach US$1.3 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7%, making it once again the most profitable industry in the world. At the same time, the global banking industry is undergoing structural changes such as business model differentiation, changes in customer dominance, and the accelerated spread of artificial intelligence.

Compared with other markets, these global trends are unfolding in a unique way in the Chinese market. McKinsey observed that some operating indicators of China’s banking industry showed signs of improvement in the first half of 2026. The net interest margin of commercial banks in the second quarter of this year was 1.41%, an increase of 0.01 percentage point from the first quarter of this year. This is the first time since 2022 that the net interest margin of commercial banks has increased sequentially in a single quarter. At the same time, the development differences between different banks have further expanded, and the profit growth rates of large commercial banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks have diverged.

In addition, artificial intelligence is accelerating to change the way customers obtain financial information, receive advice and handle financial services. Research has found that the adoption rate of AI has reached the fastest level in previous technological revolutions, about 7 times the popularization rate of digital banking. Customers' acceptance of AI for complex tasks such as financial planning and investment advice is also increasing.

However, whether AI can truly reshape the banking industry depends on whether banks can move from scattered pilot projects to large-scale value release. McKinsey observed that many banks still face challenges such as application fragmentation, insufficient data and infrastructure preparation, insufficient business and technology collaboration, and unclear value measurement standards.

"For China's banking industry, the significance of AI is not only to improve the efficiency of a single position or process, but also to reconstruct customer operations, wealth management and operational service models." Zhou Ningren believes that banks need to promote AI applications around clear business value goals and, under the premise of controllable risks, transform technology investment into customer experience, operating efficiency and long-term competitiveness.

Ma Ben, a global managing partner at McKinsey, also pointed out that how to use artificial intelligence technology to generate large-scale business value is a key focus in distinguishing banks’ basic capabilities in the future.