Typhoon "Qiangpi" has just brought two days of wind and rain to East China, and Typhoon No. 31 "Firework" has formed in the northwest Pacific. As of 5 a.m. on the 29th, it is still a super typhoon level.
At present, "fireworks" have no impact on my country's maritime areas, but many people want to ask: Are there too many typhoons this year?
The answer is: indeed, El Niño is the primary driver.
This year’s typhoons are indeed “excessive”
The surge in the number of typhoons this year is rooted in the abnormal resonance of ocean and atmospheric circulation, and the primary driver is the El Niño event.
So far, 31 typhoons have been generated in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea this year, which is tied with 2013 as the year with the most numbered typhoons in the 21st century. Considering that there will theoretically be typhoons generated from November to December, this record is still possible to be broken.
At the October press conference of the China Meteorological Administration, Huang Zhuo, deputy director of the National Meteorological Center, introduced that Typhoon No. 9 "Bavi", Typhoon No. 13 "White Dolphin", and Typhoon No. 18 "Shader" have successively landed in my country. Their life histories are more than 12 days, far exceeding the average typhoon life history of about 6 days for many years. They have a large impact on my country's coastal and land areas and a long cumulative impact.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural air-sea climate phenomenon, typically characterized by persistently abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. This phenomenon generally occurs every 2 to 7 years, and a single process usually lasts 9 to 12 months.
A super strong El Niño event occurred in my country in September. The latest monitoring and judgment from the National Marine Environment Forecast Center shows that this El Niño will reach its peak in late autumn and early winter this year.
How does El Niño "generate" typhoons?
This year, the rare phenomenon of typhoons coming in groups and three typhoons consecutively landing in the same place within 50 days is closely related to the rapid development of El Niño. How does El Niño "give birth to" typhoons?
This spring and summer, El Niño is in a period of rapid development, and the atmosphere has a significant response to the evolution of sea temperatures, which is conducive to the significant strengthening of the northwest Pacific subtropical high, thereby guiding more water vapor to be transported to my country's land areas. Against this background, typhoons affecting my country will last longer and become stronger.
Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center, said that El Niño mainly affects the "generation place" and "travel route" of typhoons: causing the formation place to move eastward, the route to change, there are more typhoons "clustering", and multiple typhoons coexist.
Xin Xin, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, said that the peak intensity of the five typhoons generated since October this year, namely Caiyun, Noro, Xiaoxiong, Qiangpi and Yanhua, has reached the super typhoon level.
At the same time, because most of the recent typhoons have occurred in the hinterland of the distant sea, sufficient space is provided for the development of typhoons, which is more conducive to supporting the birth of super typhoons.
Not just typhoons, what else does El Niño bring?
According to the National Climate Center, El Niño will have the following impacts on our country in the future:
1. It will rain a lot in the central and eastern autumn this year
As the El Niño event continues to develop, in my country this autumn (October-November), most of the central and eastern parts of the country will experience excessive rainfall, with rainfall ranging from 50% to 80% in parts of the south of the Yangtze River and the eastern part of southwest my country. Autumn rain in West China is generally more abundant, with a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north".
In places such as southwestern Inner Mongolia and the northeastern part of northwest China, precipitation is less than 20% to 50%, resulting in higher risks of meteorological drought and forest and grassland fires. There are 1 to 2 typhoons making landfall or affecting my country. The intensity is relatively strong, and they will mainly move westward and northwestward. The coastal areas of South China and East China are at high risk of heavy rains, floods, strong winds and storm surges.
2. This winter is warm but has big fluctuations
It is expected that in winter (from December this year to February next year), the temperature in my country will be generally high, the frequency of cold waves will be slightly more frequent, and the temperature will fluctuate greatly. The precipitation will be generally high, and it is necessary to focus on preventing the effects of periodic strong cold waves and low-temperature rain and snow in the south.
3. The real test will be next summer
The impact of El Niño has a significant lag, and is often most prominent in the following year. It is expected that in the spring and summer of 2027, my country's climate will be more significantly affected by El Niño than in 2026. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will experience significantly more precipitation. The risk of heavy rains and floods will be higher, and there may be severe floods. High-temperature heat waves in Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China and other places will also be more obvious.
How to prevent it? Remember these things
El Niño is not the weather on one day, it is a climate background that lasts for months or even a year. It will not make every day extreme, but it will increase the probability of extreme weather. The public is advised to take precautions.
1. Typhoon days: pay attention to early warnings and do not go out unless necessary
If you receive an orange or red alert, do not go out unless necessary: suspend work and classes in accordance with local requirements and stay in a safe room.
Clean the balcony and strengthen doors and windows: move flowerpots and debris indoors, check whether doors and windows are secure, and move vehicles to higher places.
Stay away from the beach and temporary structures: Don’t go to the beach to watch the tide during a typhoon, and avoid billboards, big trees and sheds when going out.
2. Heavy rain and flash floods: understand the signals and run to both sides
Understand the four-color warning: blue and yellow warnings to reduce going out and take precautions in advance, orange and red warnings to stop outdoor activities immediately.
When encountering a flash flood, run to the highlands on both sides: If you find that the stream is suddenly turbid or hear roaring sounds, immediately evacuate to the highlands on both sides that are perpendicular to the direction of the water flow. Do not run downstream along the ravine.
Don’t blindly wade through water-logged sections: water accumulation in culverts under bridges or low-lying sections may cover deep pits. If the depth of water is unknown, avoid it resolutely.
3. Don’t take it lightly in winter just because it’s a “warm winter”
The public is reminded not to just focus on the word "warm winter", but also to pay attention to the cold wave and strong wind warnings in the nowcast; in the south, especially the possibility of freezing rain and snow when cold air meets sufficient water vapor, the north should pay attention to the effects of strong cooling, strong winds, and snow and ice.
