The Iran-backed Houthis' launch of a major land operation around the Bab al-Mandab Strait has brought one of the world's most critical trade routes to the center of the agenda again.
Hundreds of people lost their lives in the clashes around Bab al-Mandap, which became a vital alternative for Saudi Arabia's oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to the war in the Middle East.
While mutual attacks continue between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, the group's advance towards the strait increases concerns about the future of global oil shipments.
“DOOR OF TEARS”
The Bab al-Mandab Strait, known in Arabic as the "Gate of Tears" due to past shipwrecks, is located at the southern end of the Red Sea and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean.
The strait, which is approximately 100 kilometers long, is only 30 kilometers wide at its narrowest point.
On one side is Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula, and on the other side is Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa.
This narrow geography makes Babülmandep one of the most important transit points of world maritime trade.
SHORT CUT BETWEEN EUROPE AND ASIA
The Red Sea connects maritime trade between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal.
Oil tankers and cargo ships pass through Babülmandep and reach the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. This route shortens journeys between Asia and Europe and North America by thousands of kilometers.
However, the Houthis' attacks on ships in the Red Sea during the Gaza war significantly reduced traffic on this route.
According to IMF PortWatch data, 26 thousand 895 ships passed through the Suez Canal in 2023. This number, corresponding to an average of 73.7 ships per day, decreased to 14 thousand 498 in 2024 and to 14 thousand 70 in 2025.
In the January-August period of 2026, the average number of daily crossings remained at 40.8. Thus, traffic reached only slightly above half of the pre-crisis level.
Houthis CAPTURED MOCHA
The Houthis do not currently control areas directly bordering Bab al-Mandab. However, the larger port of Hudaydah, further north, is held by the group.
A Yemeni military source announced that the Houthis captured the city of Mocha on the Red Sea coast on Monday.
The Houthis have repeatedly attacked Saudi ships in the Red Sea since declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in July.
Despite this, the group rejects claims that Iran plans to move the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb, completely close the strait, or collect passage fees from ships.
IS THE PURPOSE TO PRESSURE SAUDI OIL?
According to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, one of the Houthis' main goals is to damage Saudi Arabia's oil export capacity.
The analysis stated that the group was trying to force Saudi Arabia to halt its military operations by increasing the economic and political costs on Riyadh to unsustainable levels.
Babülmandep was of critical importance for oil trade even before the current Middle East war.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, 12 percent of the world's oil shipments passed through this strait in 2023.
HORMIS CLOSED, OIL DIRECTED HERE
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz further increased the importance of Bab al-Mandap.
Saudi Arabia began exporting its oil through Yanbu Port, located on the Red Sea coast in the west of the country, instead of Hormuz. Saudi crude oil shipments from Yanbu increased rapidly following the war.
In the March-July period, average daily exports reached approximately 3.8 million barrels. This figure corresponds to approximately five times the pre-war level.
3.8 million barrels per day corresponds to approximately 4.5 percent of the total crude oil processed in world refineries in 2025.
“THE BIGGEST DANGER IS NOT THE CLOSING OF THE THROAT”
According to security expert Andreas Krieg from King's College London, the real danger may not be the Houthis' complete closure of Bab al-Mandab.
Krieg evaluated, "The biggest danger is not the physical closure of Babülmandeb, but the constant uncertainty."
The expert said that prolonged instability could keep ship traffic in the Suez Canal low, which would impose significant economic costs on Egypt and increase both the duration and cost of Europe-Asia trade.
THE WAR IN YEMEN HAS ignited again
The war in the Middle East started on February 28, when the USA and Israel attacked Iran and Tehran responded throughout the region.
The conflicts in Yemen intensified again in July.
The Houthis' decision to allow an Iranian plane to land in Sanaa, despite Saudi Arabia's control over Yemeni airspace, was one of the starting points of the new crisis.
Mutual attacks, which started after the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemeni government hit the airport, effectively ended the ceasefire that has been largely maintained in the country since 2022.
The Houthis then declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and began targeting the country's tankers and territory.
