Trade balance has biggest surplus for October since 1989

The Brazilian trade balance had the largest surplus for the month of October in 37 years, according to data released this Friday (6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic).

Driven by oil, fuels, cereals and soybeans, exports exceeded imports by US$9.32 billion, a difference 39.4% greater than that recorded in October 2025, when it was US$6.69 billion.

Export growth of 20% provided the result, the best since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989.

Main numbers

Surplus: US$9.32 billion (+39.4% compared to October 2025);

Exports: US$31.51 billion (+20%);

Imports: US$24.82 billion (+14.8%);

Trade flow: US$56.33 billion (+17.7%).

The trade flow, the sum of exports and imports, reached US$56.33 billion, also the highest value ever recorded for the months of October in the historical series.

Exports

The increase in foreign sales was led by the extractive industry, followed by agriculture and the processing industry.

Exports by sector:

Extractive industry: US$11.52 billion (+53.5% compared to October 2025);

Manufacturing industry: US$18.38 billion (+7.7%);

Agriculture: US$7.63 billion (+12.8%).

Featured products:

Extractive industry: crude oil (+122.6% compared to October last year), metal ores and concentrates (+900.6%);

Processing industry: fuels (+164.5%), soybean meal (+39.1%);

Agriculture: soybeans (+8.9%); live animals, except fish (+212.1%); rye and oats (from US$ 2.8 million to US$ 338.8 million, a percentage increase of 12 thousand, due to differences in shipping schedules).

In the case of oil, the growth in production and the 36.7% increase in average prices, following the worsening of the war in the Middle East, increased exports.

Sales destinations

Exports grew to most of Brazil's main markets, including the United States, despite trade tensions between the two countries.

However, they fell 5.3% to China, due to the end of the quota for meat sales.

Who bought from Brazil:

Europe: US$7.76 billion (+35.8%);

North America: US$5.66 billion (+47.4%);

South America: US$4.58 billion (+14.9%);

Asia: US$15.41 billion (+9.3%)

Sales to the United States increased 11.4% in October, even amid the application of new tariffs on Brazilian products. This is because aviation products and items such as meat and orange juice were excluded from the tariff after negotiations.

With October's result, exports to the United States registered accumulated growth of 0.2% in the year.

For the European Union, the growth can be explained by the agreement with Mercosur, which is boosting sales, mainly of food, to the bloc.

Imports

Brazilian purchases abroad rose 14.8%, driven mainly by fuels, whose prices rose 84.2% in October compared to the same month in 2025.

Imports by category:

Capital goods: US$3.7 billion (+4%);

Intermediate goods: US$15.2 billion (+2.7%);

Consumer goods: US$5.1 billion (+25.9%);

Fuels: US$4.5 billion (+86.8%, driven by the 84.2% increase in prices).

In the case of capital goods, the slowdown in the economy's growth rate caused by high interest rates is slowing down investment by industry, the main buyer of machinery.

Accumulated from 2026

From January to October, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$71.04 billion.

Exports: US$321.88 billion (+11.2%);

Imports: US$250.84 billion (+6.1%);

Trade balance: US$62.4 billion (+34.1%).

Projections

In October, the Mdic revised downwards its projection for 2026. The trade balance surplus estimate went from US$90 billion to US$84.4 billion.

Even with the drop, the result would be the second best for a year since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. It would only lose to 2023 (US$ 98.8 billion).

The export forecast was reduced from US$394.4 billion to US$382.5 billion. The projection for imports increased from US$304.4 billion to US$298.1 billion.

The estimate is more optimistic than that of financial institutions. According to the Focus bulletin, a weekly financial market survey released by the Central Bank, analysts project a trade surplus of US$79.9 billion for this year.