Bank of Italy: businesses expect new high prices from inflation

According to the Bank of Italy's survey conducted between 25 August and 18 September 2026 among Italian industrial and service companies with at least 50 employees, in the third quarter the negative assessments on the general economic situation eased, although they remained worse than those recorded before the start of the war in the Middle East.

For Italian companies, the conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had a limited impact on the demand for goods or services, but a significant impact on the costs of production inputs. This was revealed by the Bank of Italy in the survey on inflation and growth expectations for the third quarter. The investment programs for 2026 continue to be expansive, even if the conditions for investing are assessed as unfavorable overall, especially by small businesses. Inflation expectations remain essentially stable. In the next 12 months, companies expect further increases in their sales prices, mainly connected to the prices of raw materials.

As stated in the Bank of Italy survey, "total demand for its products or services has maintained a positive trend overall, with weaker assessments in industry in the strict sense and substantial stability in services and construction". Sales were mainly driven by the foreign component, however "in the face of a weakening of the domestic component".

The prospects for its operating conditions in the fourth quarter remain unfavorable, while those for total demand and its foreign component are still positive and are accompanied by an expected increase in employment, albeit at a marginally slower pace than that indicated in the same period last year".

Sales prices continued to grow in all sectors, with dynamics compared to the previous survey essentially stable in industry in the strict sense and in services and more contained in construction. Companies expect further increases in the next twelve months, linked above all to the prices of raw materials: the majority of companies affected by the increases attributable to the conflict declare that they have passed them on partially or completely to their prices. Inflation expectations remain essentially stable, with a slight reduction over the shorter horizons compared to the values ​​reported in the previous quarter.