The Democratic Party swept both houses of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) analyzed that the soaring prices caused by the US-Iraq war, the Democratic Party's focus on people's livelihood issues, and the defection of minority votes were all key to severely damaging the Republican election.
The BBC reported that the ruling party usually performs poorly in midterm elections, but the Republican Party suffered such a disastrous defeat this time. Not only did it lose control of both houses of Congress, but it was also seen by the outside world as a strong rejection of President Trump's two-year administration by voters across the United States.
● The cost of living continues to soar
From the east coast to the west coast of the United States, voters everywhere are suffering from soaring prices of daily necessities, and public dissatisfaction in key constituencies is even more obvious. A North Carolina voter told the BBC before the election that "gas prices, vegetable prices, everything are going up," adding that he had switched from supporting the Republican Party to the Democratic Party this election.
Amid soaring fuel and energy prices, prices in the United States have increased by 3.7% in the past year as of September this year; official data shows that in early October, the average price of retail diesel across the United States was close to the historical high of US$6.52 per gallon (approximately NT$213) set in September.
Voter polls show that nearly 80% of voters said that inflation has put them and their families into severe or moderate financial difficulties in the past year; more than 60% of the respondents believe that higher than usual prices are caused by Trump's policies.
● The unpopular US-Iraq war
The U.S.-Iran war is a major cause of soaring prices. With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, American voters are still paying the price at the gas station.
Facts have proven that the American people generally do not support this war; for Republican voters who support the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, this is tantamount to a violation of Trump's "America First" campaign promise not to wage another war.
In a voter poll, about 60% of the respondents believed that the United States made a wrong decision to take military action against Iran; more than 70% of voters said that this conflict was the key or main factor that influenced their vote in the congressional election.
● The Democratic Party’s demands are rigorously focused
The Democratic Party’s wave of electoral victories can be attributed to several strong candidates who gave a sincere impression, especially in the traditional Republican vote base; they have always focused on the two core issues of cost of living and medical rights during the election campaign.
In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews won the election in an upset. A former pediatrician, her focus is on making medical care affordable for the public, which resonates in the United States where many believe the medical system is broken.
Public health expert Abdul El-Sayed won the election in Michigan and held the U.S. Senate seat for the Democratic Party. He made "getting money out of politics and putting money in your pocket" a key campaign slogan.
Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff, who was successfully re-elected in Georgia, focused on cost of living and corruption as his core demands. The 39-year-old Ossoff's easy victory in Georgia, a state where Trump won twice, is bound to further fuel the outside world's optimism about his bid for the 2028 presidential election.
● The failure of the Trump effect drags down the Republican Party
The two major issues that voters are most dissatisfied with, soaring prices and the US-Iran war, are both directly related to Trump. Trump's support has also declined among Republican voters, leaving some states that supported him in 2024 particularly in danger.
Polls in the months leading up to the election showed that many Americans wanted Trump to pay more attention to their concerns about soaring prices. However, when Trump delivered his final pre-election speech in Washington on the 2nd, he spent a lot of time talking about the controversial renovation project of the Reflecting Pool at the Lincoln Memorial.
Although Trump has called on voters to imagine that he is on the ballot, some believe that the election results show that the luster of the Trump brand may be fading. At a time when public dissatisfaction is rising, Trump's approach of making himself the main focus of the Republican campaign is a risky move in itself, and now it seems to be even more counterproductive.
● Hispanic and African-American voters are defecting and returning
Two years ago, some Hispanic and African-American voters turned to support the Republican Party, helping Trump achieve a decisive victory. However, the situation seems to be reversed in this midterm election. In districts along the Texas-Mexico border where Hispanics make up the majority, the Democratic Party swept three federal seats in the House of Representatives.
The New York Times analyzed that compared with the 2024 presidential election, more than half of the Hispanic counties' votes tilted toward the Democratic Party in the federal Senate election by more than 22 percentage points; data analysis reporter Jeff Adelson said that this is the largest change among major ethnic groups in the United States.
This shift comes at a time when the American people are generally dissatisfied with immigration enforcement. A Pew Research Center survey showed that 56% of Americans have a negative opinion of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Counties where more than half of the population is African-American have also clearly shifted to support Democratic candidates in federal senatorial elections. (Compiled by: Zhang Mingxuan)
