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Back美聯儲指出能源價格高漲及伊朗戰爭不確定性壓縮企業與家庭信心
美聯儲指出能源價格高漲及伊朗戰爭不確定性壓縮企業與家庭信心
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中央社43 minutes agoBusiness2 min readChina

美聯儲指出能源價格高漲及伊朗戰爭不確定性壓縮企業與家庭信心

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美聯儲在最新褐皮書報告中指出,儘管美國經濟自7月初以來呈溫和成長,消費支出略增,但能源價格上漲、政策問題及伊朗戰爭帶來的不確定性正壓縮企業與家庭信心。通膨高漲使消費者對物價極度敏感,低收入家庭減少支出,高收入家庭消費持續成長,呈現K型經濟趨勢。川普政府持續施壓聯準會降息,儘管通膨仍高,市場預期聯準會可能於9月會議升息以對抗通膨壓力。製造業與營建業多地面臨較高投入成本,資料中心及國防產業需求帶動製造業回溫。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美聯儲定期發布褐皮書報告,匯總全美十二個準銀行轄區的經濟狀況,為利率決策提供依據。近期美國通膨雖有所回落但仍高於目標水準,低收入群體承受較大生活成本壓力,而高收入群體消費韌性較好,形成K型復甦格局。

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(中央社華盛頓2日綜合外電報導)聯邦準備理事會(Fed)今天指出,儘管美國整體經濟前景正向,但能源價格高漲、政策問題以及伊朗戰爭所帶來的不確定性,正對企業與家庭的信心造成壓力。

法新社報導,聯準會在最新發布的「褐皮書」(Beige Book)經濟調查報告中指出,自7月初以來,全美經濟活動呈現「溫和」成長,消費支出也略有增加。

不過,聯準會表示,通膨高漲已使消費者普遍對物價變得非常敏感,但高價商品的購買需求依然強勁。

這項調查結果與經濟學家所稱的「K型經濟」趨勢一致。近來美國出現一種現象,即低收入家庭正在減少支出,而高所得家庭的消費則持續成長。

在美國總統川普所屬的共和黨正努力維持對國會掌控之際,高物價及波動的經濟表現,將成為川普面對11月期中選舉的關鍵議題。

川普上任後,對聯準會的獨立性發動了前所未有的攻擊,儘管目前通膨處於高檔,仍要求聯準會降息以刺激經濟活動。

聯準會的利率決策委員會將於9月中旬召開會議,市場目前預期,聯準會可能升息以對抗持續存在的通膨壓力。

上週,聯準會主席華許(Kevin Warsh)指出,針對通膨問題「仍有工作要做」,並表示沒有看到核心通膨趨勢朝正確方向發展的證據。

聯準會偏好的通膨指標在7月維持於3.7%,較5月創下的3年高點4.1%略微下降。

聯準會轄下12個行政區的物價都出現上漲,其中約2/3地區回報「溫和」上漲,而聖路易聯準銀行轄區則出現「強勁」的價格上漲。

整體而言,製造業與營建業在多個聯準銀行轄區都面臨較高的投入成本壓力。

聯準會表示,全美大部分地區的製造業活動回溫,其中以資料中心相關訂單以及國防產業的需求最集中。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 美聯儲將在9月會議上維持利率不變或小幅升息

    Likely · Within months

  • 美國低收入家庭消費將在短期內持續疲弱

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 美聯儲在9月會議是否真的會升息?
  • 伊朗局勢若升級,對全球能源市場的具體影響為何?
  • 川普政府對聯準會的施壓是否會影響其政策獨立性?

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This article was originally published by 中央社.

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