White House drama clouds Republican midterm election prospects

President Trump has crisscrossed the country in recent days, continuing to project himself as the savior of the Republican Party. He made it clear through his words and his presence that this midterm election was a referendum on himself.

But in Washington, Trump's White House is mired in a series of turmoils, further evidence of why polls show his presidency itself has become a drag on the Republican Party.

On Monday, Trump called for the resignation of Kimberly Guilfoyle, the ambassador to Greece, after a series of embarrassing reports came to light, including that she asked a donor to pay off $100,000 of her credit card debt. On Thursday, the president canceled plans for a Pentagon broadcast of the execution of the officer convicted of the 2009 Fort Hood mass shooting, after sparking bipartisan outrage. On Friday, he fired his press secretary after just five days on the job and a poor debut.

Meanwhile, the White House counsel's office is investigating a dispute involving two prominent Trump allies and former administration officials, alleging that one of them embezzled funds from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. The bitter conflict stems from a deal that stretches from the Democratic Republic of Congo to a defense company in Texas. Separately, the government's standoff with a federal judge deepened. The judge is presiding over a lawsuit challenging the president's golf course plans after she scolded federal officials for cutting down hundreds of mature trees without advance notice and the Trump administration's subsequent push to decertify them.

Taken together, the series of controversies recall the chaos of Trump's first term, when infighting among staff frequently came to light. The week also encapsulated how Trump's approval ratings have been weighed down by administration policies and accusations of enriching himself, which have dogged much of his inner circle.

"It feels like we're back at the end of 2020," said Alyssa Farrah Griffin, who served in Trump's first White House. "It's so chaotic. It's like drinking from a fire hose. You can't predict the next plot twist of this administration."

“It’s hard to imagine a worse week for the White House heading into the midterm elections,” she said.

According to the New York Times poll average, Trump's approval rating currently hovers around 37%, the lowest point of his presidential career. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Sunday (conducted from October 9 to 13) showed that his approval rating among Republicans has dropped to 79% from 88% at the beginning of his term. The survey also found that for the first time in a decade, voters trust Democrats more on economic issues, and 66% of voters believe Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself.

A Fox News poll this month found government corruption ranked No. 1 among voters' top concerns, followed by inflation, oil prices, government leadership and health care. Democrats are trying to argue that corruption is actually one of the root causes of rising prices.

"If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, it will be because they have managed to distance themselves from some of the president's policies," Jeff Flake, a former Arizona Republican senator who is a longtime Trump critic and served as ambassador to Turkey in the Biden administration, said in an interview. "It's not an ideal situation. And it's not just the policy, but the weirdness. The vulgarity, the vulgarity, the obscene language. It's terrible. It doesn't help the Republican Party at all."

As he traveled around, Trump said nothing about the latest controversy. He held rallies in six states from Alaska to Georgia, delivering a familiar message: His presidency has been a resounding success, and a Democratic victory next month threatens America's future.

The Trump rally was a well-tended soap bubble, with a group largely composed of MAGA superfans enthusiastically approving of the president's message.

Tara Green, a front-office executive who attended the rally in Wasilla, Alaska, said meeting Trump was a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity."

"Trump has a vision, and it may take time, but he's solving the problem," she said. "I have full faith and trust in him."

Even within this bubble, however, there are signs of Trump's declining support. It was once rare for the president to be interrupted by protesters at every rally. And large venues that used to be easily packed are now empty.

Outside the Chuyi Center in Highland Heights, Kentucky, on Saturday, a special guest check-in volunteer asked a Trump staffer how many people were expected to attend the rally. The staffer, who was wearing a "Team Trump" jacket, said they had expected a larger crowd than actually showed up. (The entire upper level of the arena remained empty during the rally.) The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump's message also became noticeably rambling in its final stretch, even for a man who boasts about his ability to "braid" — rambling and jumping from topic to topic.

The president has praised the appearance of male Republican candidates at most rallies this week. (He seemed particularly obsessed with the butt of Republican Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio, mentioning it at two different rallies.)

He recounted his political achievements and the advantages of victory in the states he visited. Most of these states are traditional Republican strongholds, a sign of how much ground his party has to defend this year.

He also reminded voters that he would offer a package of incentives if they gave Republicans the victory, expanding those measures from cash rewards to pardons and Pentagon investments.

But even the president himself has downplayed the impact of his signature midterm election promise: his controversial pledge to give every American adult $5,000 — which he called the “Trump Dividend” — if Republicans retain control of Congress.

He described a hypothetical conversation about how a couple wanted to spend the money: "Let's go to Palm Beach and have lunch with the president. Go to Mar-a-Lago for lunch, and for $5,000, you get a burger and a small dessert," he said, laughing. "I shouldn't say that."

The remark in particular highlighted how Trump has repeatedly downplayed voters' anxieties about the rising cost of living — one of the reasons Republicans have tried to distance themselves from the president.

Even among rally attendees, many appeared to be more cautious than in previous elections, and loyalty to Trump seemed to outweigh policy or concerns about government instability.