Copper prices recorded a limited increase on Wednesday, supported by data showing the return of industrial activity in China to the growth path during September, although trading remained limited ahead of a week-long holiday in the largest metal consuming country in the world.
The three-month benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.23 percent to reach $14,471 per metric ton by 03:30 GMT. The most traded copper contract for November on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose by 0.21 percent to 109,530 yuan per ton, although it is heading to end the holiday-shortened week with a decline of about 0.52 percent, according to Reuters.
Chinese official data showed that the industrial purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 points in September, compared to 49.8 points in August, exceeding the level of 50 points that separates growth from contraction.
A special survey conducted by the Rating Dog Foundation also showed an acceleration in the pace of industrial activity. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to its highest level in 5 months at 52.1 points, compared to 51.5 points in the previous month.
A state of caution prevailed in the markets ahead of the Chinese National Day holiday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will close starting Thursday and resume trading on October 8. Actual demand for copper also declined as the holiday period approached.
In the domestic market, the domestic copper price margin continued to decline from the peak recorded on Tuesday to reach 1,050 yuan per ton. In contrast, the Yangshan copper margin, which is an indicator of Chinese consumers’ appetite to import the metal, rose slightly to $119 per ton.
In terms of currencies, the US dollar maintained its strength, heading towards achieving monthly gains of approximately 2 percent, supported by the rise in US Treasury bond yields. The rise of the dollar usually increases the cost of metals priced in the US currency to buyers who deal in other currencies.
Oil prices also stabilized at high levels, with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel, which kept inflation-related concerns alive and strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again.
As for other metals on the London Metal Exchange, aluminum rose by 0.09 percent, nickel rose by 0.23 percent, while zinc fell by 0.23 percent, tin by 0.93 percent, while lead remained unchanged.
As for the Shanghai Futures Exchange, aluminum fell by 0.35 percent, zinc by 0.26 percent, lead by 0.12 percent, and nickel by 1 percent, while tin stabilized with little change.
The administration of US President Donald Trump is considering several options to contain the sharp rise in diesel prices, including imposing restrictions on exports, at a time when pressure is mounting within the Republican Party and the oil sector regarding the repercussions of the fuel crisis on the American economy, while several states have begun measures to reduce the cost of diesel and gasoline.
A Financial Times report quoted people familiar with the discussions as saying that the White House offered Trump options that included limiting diesel sales in foreign markets, while American officials informed European allies of the possibility of supply disruptions.
A White House official said that Trump is “evaluating all options presented” to reduce fuel prices domestically, without making a decision on suspending exports yet.
This comes after the price of diesel in the United States reached a record level of $6.53 per gallon last week, an increase of more than 70 percent from its level before the outbreak of the war with Iran, according to AAA data reported by Reuters. War-related supply disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and declining global inventories have tightened the diesel market.
Conflicting pressures
Trump faces pressure from two sides: As Republican legislators push; Especially from agricultural states, there is an effort to limit diesel exports with the aim of increasing supply in the local market and reducing prices, while oil companies warn that restricting exports may lead to market turmoil and higher prices in American regions that depend partly on imported fuel.
According to the Financial Times, oil companies have intensified their contacts with the White House in recent days, while a number of members of the administration, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Treasury Secretary Scott Besent, discussed the repercussions of imposing an export ban. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods also met with Wright at the White House on Tuesday.
Trump had previously said that he supported banning diesel exports, before the decision remained under discussion. Discussions show that the administration is also considering less direct alternatives, including expanding exemptions associated with the Jones Act, which could facilitate the transfer of fuel between US ports, easing some taxes, and allowing dyed diesel, which is exempt from most federal taxes, to be used more widely.
Actions at the state level
In parallel with the White House discussion, American states have already begun taking steps to reduce the cost of fuel. Reuters reported that several states suspended taxes on gasoline and diesel, and eased restrictions on the use of dyed diesel, usually reserved for agricultural machinery and off-road vehicles. Other states also resorted to amending fuel mixing rules or truck weights.
In Georgia, the state tax on gasoline and diesel was suspended for 30 days, along with an easing of weight restrictions for commercial vehicles. Indiana has suspended its sales tax on gasoline, while Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas have allowed diesel to be used on roads in broader conditions.
California also temporarily suspended summer gasoline blend rules, while other states eased restrictions on transporting crops and fuel, in an effort to reduce the cost of transportation and supplies.
A crisis that extends beyond the American market
The repercussions of any potential restrictions are not limited to the local market. The United States has become an important supplier of diesel to global markets after a decline in supplies from other regions, while data showed that American diesel exports rose by more than 20 percent from last year’s levels to about 1.3 million barrels per day, according to a Reuters analysis.
In Europe, the White House urged countries to draw on emergency diesel stockpiles to help ease global prices, while the administration continues to consider ways to increase supplies.
The crisis reflects a paradox in the American energy market: although the United States is the largest oil producer in the world and its refineries are operating at high rates, the disruption of global supplies has revealed the dependence of the American market on international trade in some types of fuel.
The price of Brent crude rose to $102.59 per barrel in Tuesday’s settlement, an increase of nearly 40 percent since the start of the war in February, which increases pressure on the oil derivatives market.
While restricting exports may increase the supply of diesel within the United States in the short term, wider restrictions may redistribute the shortage rather than eliminate it; Especially in light of the tight global refining capacities and the continuing supply disruptions.
The administration of US President Donald Trump intends to put forward plans to invest about $54 billion from the strategic package pledged by South Korea, to finance a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska and other American projects, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
The Alaska LNG project is at the forefront of the proposed projects. It includes constructing a pipeline to transport gas from the northern slope of the state to a liquefaction facility on the southern coast, before exporting it to Asian markets.
The company developing the project (Glenvarney) is seeking to secure additional agreements to purchase gas to secure the necessary financing, after it announced in March that it had obtained commitments to purchase 13 million tons annually. The Japanese "Jera" and "Tokyo Gas" also signed preliminary agreements to purchase two million tons annually combined if the project is implemented.
The Alaska LNG plan has faced challenges for years related to the project's cost, financing, and commercial feasibility. These aspects have also been subject to studies by the governments of South Korea and Japan, making potential Korean investment a new source of financing for the project.
Seoul and Washington are working to identify projects that can accommodate the $350 billion strategic investment package, which South Korea pledged as part of a trade agreement last year. Discussions include, in addition to the Alaska gas project, nuclear energy projects and a gas power plant in Texas.
Kim Sung-won, an opposition lawmaker and head of the Trade Committee in the South Korean Parliament, said that the National Assembly will scrutinize the profitability of American investment projects and the financial risks associated with them, in addition to the direct benefits to Korean companies.
He added that US investments should be designed to achieve mutual benefit, expand markets for Korean companies, and enhance the stability of energy supply chains.
Trump has repeatedly promoted the Alaska project as a way to increase US energy exports and strengthen relations with Washington's allies, including South Korea and Japan.
