Bears vs. Packers prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL Week 5 picks from proven model

The Chicago Bears will look to defeat the Green Bay Packers for the third consecutive time when they meet in a key NFC North matchup on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is coming off a 23-12 win over the New York Jets on Sunday, while Green Bay defeated Tampa Bay 17-14. The Bears (3-1), who could still be without starting quarterback Caleb Williams (hamstring), have won two in a row and are 1-0 on the road this season. The Packers (2-2), who are tied for third in the division with Detroit, are 0-1 on their home field in 2026. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The latest Bears vs. Packers odds have Chicago as 1.5-point road favorites. The over/under for total points scored is 46.5. Before making any Packers vs. Bears picks or 2026 NFL Week 5 predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Bears vs. Packers. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Bears:

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Top Bears vs. Packers predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Bears vs. Packers, the model is going Over 46.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in six of the past 10 head-to-head meetings, including in three of the last four. The Over has also hit in three of the last five Green Bay games. The Over is 2-1 this season when the line is between 43 and 46 in games involving the Packers.

Although the Bears' quarterback situation is uncertain, backup Tyson Bagent was solid in the Bears' win over the Jets. He completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards with one interception. Wide receiver Rome Odunze is explosive, with 14 catches for 233 yards, including six receptions for 20 or more yards. Quarterback Jordan Love powers the Packers' attack. In four starts, he has completed 56.5% of his passes for 1,041 yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions.

The model projects 49 combined points as the Over hits 57% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Packers vs. Bears picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread is hitting in more than 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.