Following the technical study carried out by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Revenue Administration, it was decided that the fixed SCT increase on gasoline would be spread over the months of October, November and December. Thus, the increase that will be reflected in the pump will be applied in three stages, not all at once.
Following the tax reductions previously applied to diesel and the re-addition of fixed SCT to prices piece by piece, a similar method was put into effect for gasoline.
It was preferred to divide the tax burden into months in order to prevent the economic burden that would be caused by high increases in fuel prices being reflected at the pump all at once. Thus, while the final price level did not change, the reflection of the increases at the pump was spread over time.
While this method is evaluated in the market as a "gradual adaptation to the price increase" or "boiling water" strategy, it appears that the total increase burden that the consumer will face has not changed and has only been divided into months.
With the new regulation, instead of increasing the current fixed SCT, which is 4.44 TL per liter on gasoline, to 14.82 TL, which is the legal upper limit, at once, the net tax difference of 10.38 TL was divided into three equal slices.
The increase schedule that will be reflected in gasoline prices within the scope of gradual implementation is as follows:
October 1, 2026: Net fixed SCT on gasoline was increased from 4.44 TL to 7.90 TL. With the addition of 20 percent VAT to the net SCT increase of 3.46 TL, the increase reflected in the pump price became 4 TL and 15 kuruş. Thus, the total fixed SCT on gasoline will be applied as 7.90 TL throughout October.
November 1, 2026: The specific SCT amount will be increased from 7.90 TL to 11.36 TL. At this stage, an additional increase of approximately 4.15 TL will be reflected at the pump.
December 1, 2026: The specific SCT amount will be increased to the final legal limit of 14.82 TL + VAT. Thus, the application of the deferred tax burden in the gasoline group will be completed.
Within the scope of the regulation, the increases in the diesel and LPG groups were directly reflected on the pump as of midnight at 00:00. The price of diesel was increased by 3 TL and 60 kuruş, and the price of LPG autogas was increased by 1 TL and 45 kuruş.
With the final steps of the tax implementation on diesel, which was completed piecemeal, pump prices reached the 100 TL limit, while gasoline prices were updated with the first step of the three-stage calendar.
Following the 4 TL and 15 kurus increase in gasoline prices within the scope of the first stage and the increase in diesel prices, the current fuel pump prices in metropolitan cities are as follows:
ISTANBUL EUROPE: Gasoline: 84.60 TL, Diesel: 97.10 TL, LPG: 36.44 TL
ISTANBUL ANATOLIA: Gasoline: 84.45 TL, Diesel: 96.90 TL, LPG: 35.88 TL
ANKARA: Gasoline: 85.55 TL, Diesel: 98.20 TL, LPG: 36.54 TL
İZMİR: Gasoline: 85.85 TL, Diesel: 98.50 TL, LPG: 36.44 TL
This method, known in the market as "boiling frog" or "boiled frog syndrome" in the literature, is a price perception management model that aims to soften the sudden psychological reaction and economic shock that high rate increases will cause in the consumer. It is based on the principle that although a frog suddenly thrown into hot water reacts and jumps out, if it is placed in cold water and the water is heated gradually, it does not feel the change and gradually gets used to the environment.
The economic management aims to prevent the inflationary shock and gradually get the consumer accustomed to the increased price level by dividing the huge 10.38 TL SCT increase on gasoline into three months instead of reflecting it all at once.
