Bernstein analysts bullish on Circle as USDC supply shows growth

Analysts at Bernstein are bullish on stablecoin issuer Circle, arguing that a new growth cycle for its USDC stablecoin could provide a significant boost for the company over the next 12 months.

In a research note published Monday, Bernstein said USDC (USDC) is showing signs of what it called “digital dollar reflation” after its supply increased by roughly $2 billion in seven days, reversing a six-month stretch of stagnant or declining growth. The firm maintained an Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels. Circle shares have risen roughly 40% over the past month.

Bernstein said the next phase of stablecoin growth could be driven by several factors, including renewed momentum in crypto markets, greater regulatory clarity in the United States, tokenized capital markets and growing adoption of stablecoins for payments. The analysts also pointed to early signs of stablecoin use in payments made by artificial intelligence agents.

Although USDC remains the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin by market capitalization, well behind Tether’s USDt (USDT), it has gained significant ground in transaction activity. Bernstein said USDC’s share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from roughly 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDt by that measure.

Circle’s volatile path since its IPO

Circle shares have experienced significant swings since the company went public in June 2025. The stablecoin issuer priced its shares at $31 and raised roughly $1.1 billion in its initial public offering. After surging in the months following its debut, the stock had fallen back toward its IPO price by November 2025 as a broader crypto market downturn weighed on publicly traded companies with exposure to the sector.

In its most recent quarter, Circle reported $701 million in revenue and $48 million in net income, both up from a year earlier.