Earthquake Science Board member and Dokuz Eylül University (DEU) Earthquake Research and Application Center Director Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir made a statement about the earthquake.
Pointing out that there have been more than 170 micro-earthquake activities with a magnitude of up to 3.2, forming certain clusters, since Tuesday, Sözbilir said, "A significant part of the earthquakes occur close to the Adalar fault." he said.
Stating that according to AFAD solutions, earthquakes occur at a depth of 5 to 13 kilometers with different focal mechanisms, Sözbilir continued as follows:
"Today, we do not have a reliable method that can distinguish in advance whether a micro-earthquake cluster is a harbinger of a major earthquake. It can only be understood retrospectively that an earthquake is a 'foreshock' when it is followed by a major earthquake."
"THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES SINCE THE 1999 EARTHQUAKE"
Sözbilir said, "Micro earthquake activity in the region has been continuing at regular intervals since the 1999 Kocaeli-Düzce earthquakes. Of course, we can say that it reduces tension and stress at certain scales." he said.
Earthquake Science Board member and Ankara University Geophysical Engineering Department faculty member Prof. Dr. Regarding the fault mechanism and mobility in the region, Bahadır Aktuğ said, "There are different opinions in the literature about the activity of this fault. Current small-scale earthquakes alone do not provide enough data for us to reach a definitive conclusion about the entire fault." made his assessment.
Stating that similar seismic clusters have been recorded from time to time in different regions of Türkiye, Aktuğ noted that there is no scientific basis for interpreting such small movements as a direct precursor or precursor of a large earthquake.
It was emphasized that whether an earthquake is a precursor or not can only be understood retrospectively after a possible main shock, and that the current picture should be evaluated away from speculation.
Aktuğ said the following about the distribution of earthquakes on the fault:
"When we examine the distribution of earthquakes along the fault direction, we do not see a time-dependent correlation, that is, seismicity does not progress along the fault. The Adalar fault is approximately 44 kilometers long and the activity only occurs in a very limited, local section of 7 kilometers. We do not observe any depth or directional migration indicating a gradual triggering. Therefore, these data do not present a pattern that will trigger the next big earthquake."
Emphasizing that citizens should only consider the statements of AFAD and authorized official institutions, Aktuğ pointed out that unfounded claims and uncontrolled statements can sometimes turn into a speculative instrument to directly affect housing prices, land values and insurance markets.
Earthquake Science Board member and Kocaeli University Geophysical Engineering Department faculty member Prof. Dr. Şerif Barış also made evaluations about the recent activity on the Marmara Sea Islands fault.
"These are formed as a result of the breaking of small fragments, which we call our background seismicity." Making his statement, Barış said that similar processes occur frequently throughout Türkiye.
Barış said, "There have been such earthquake events many times, and there has been neither a medium-sized nor a large earthquake. There is no condition that a major earthquake must occur after 60 or 70 earthquakes." he said.
Reminding that Türkiye is an earthquake country, Barış asked that the data of authorized institutions such as AFAD be respected instead of speculations.
He underlined that risk management should be centered in order to prevent peace, life and economic losses, and called for non-governmental organizations, workplaces and families to fully prepare their own emergency disaster plans.
