Bitcoin: CPI, banks and Beige Book, the 3 meetings of the day

A busy Wednesday before the Fed. The August CPI had raised the chances of a rate hike in September above 85%, and the Fed voted for it on the 16th. For the October 28 meeting, CME FedWatch only gives a 22% chance of a further increase. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $83,000. Three meetings punctuate the day, including the report on September prices, expected at 2:30 p.m. in Paris. The results of American banks and the Fed's Beige Book frame this.

The September US CPI falls at 2:30 p.m.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the official inflation barometer) at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, or 2:30 p.m. in Paris. According to investinglive, the consensus expects +0.6% over one month and 3.6% over one year, against 3.4% in August. Schwab instead retains 3.7% over one year, a sign that forecasts vary from one source to another.

So-called core inflation, which excludes energy and food, should slow to +0.2% over the month and stand at 2.5% over one year, compared to 2.4%. The expected pattern is therefore that of a main number which climbs while the base calms down.

Operators will look for where the thrust is coming from. If it remains confined to energy, the reaction could be measured. If the base surprises to the upside, yields and the dollar would benefit, two headwinds for BTC. Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders sums up the issue in one sentence: Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI will tell if the rate hike probabilities are moving.

Three Wall Street giants open their accounts before the bell

The three groups publish their third quarter results before the opening of Wall Street, therefore before 3:30 p.m. in Paris, or 9:30 a.m. in New York. According to Digrin, estimates call for $1.16 per share for Bank of America, with $31.3 billion in revenue, $3.17 for Morgan Stanley and $14.40 for BlackRock.

On Tuesday, the tone was mixed. JPMorgan disappointed with $5.57 per share versus $5.90 expected, while Goldman Sachs smashed the consensus to $17.01 versus $12.86, according to Schwab. Morgan Stanley, Goldman's direct competitor in investment banking and market activities, will pass the same test.

BlackRock is apart. The world's leading asset manager carries the IBIT bitcoin ETF, and its assets can be read line by line in its accounts.

The Fed's Beige Book arrives at 8 p.m.

The American central bank publishes its Beige Book at 2 p.m. in Washington, or 8 p.m. in Paris, according to Kiplinger. This collection of business testimonies, collected in the twelve Fed districts, describes the state of the real economy rather than that of statistics. It falls before the meeting of October 27 and 28.

The context is that of a Fed which is hesitating on the pace. Last Thursday, Governor Christopher Waller judged that further increases would probably be necessary, while remaining flexible on the timetable. The Beige Book will tell whether companies see prices rise and employment hold.

Published at 8 p.m., it will fall after the closing of the European stock markets, when only Wall Street and the crypto market (open continuously) will still be able to react.