Pumpkins full of shelves and no one to sell them. Every fall, American brands recruit by the tens of thousands before Halloween to keep up with the holiday rush. This year the stocks are there but the employment contracts are not keeping up.
U.S. employers announced only 90,787 hires in September. No September had done worse since 2011. The figure falls two weeks after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. Bitcoin lives to the rhythm of the cost of money and the signal counts double for it before the October 28 meeting.
September hirings at lowest since 2011
The count comes from the reclassification firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which each month lists announcements of layoffs and hiring intentions from American companies. His report published on October 1 leaves little room for doubt. The 90,787 hires planned for September fell by 23% year-on-year (117,313 in September 2025) and fell to an unprecedented level for the period since 2011.
Retail trade carries almost the entire structure, with 65,150 hiring intentions over the month. Over the first nine months of the year, the sector totaled 66,557. In other words, distribution had recruited almost nothing before September.
Look closer, and the picture gets even darker. Only two brands have officially launched their seasonal campaign: Spirit Halloween, with a historic record of 52,000 positions, and Michaels, with more than 10,000. This makes 62,000 seasonal hires, compared to 100,800 announced in September 2025. The heavyweights are silent. Amazon has recruited 250,000 seasonal workers each of the last three years and usually reveals its objective in mid-October. Target (around 100,000 positions) and Kohl’s (around 90,000) had not communicated anything as of September 23, according to Challenger.
“Companies are in a wait-and-see period,” summarizes Andy Challenger, commercial director of the firm. He does not see “the influx of hiring intentions that accompanies the holiday season” coming, a sign of a “very cautious approach”.
Why American employers are slowing down
Andy Challenger himself lists the obstacles: high energy costs, a war in Iran with an uncertain outcome, a rise in rates which increases the cost of hiring and the prospect of a surge in health costs. Lots of headwinds for just one quarter.
The movement is not new. In the fourth quarter of 2025, American distributors added only 461,500 jobs, 15% less than a year earlier and the smallest seasonal gain since 2008. For 2026, Challenger expects around 450,000 positions. The machines have something to do with it. Brands now prefer to rely on automation, their existing employees and pools of on-demand workers before signing new contracts.
The American job market is freezing rather than collapsing. Announcements of layoffs fell to 43,281 in September, their lowest level for this month since 2022. Artificial intelligence, however, remains the leading reason for job cuts since January, with 120,136 departures, or 21% of the total. Companies keep their troops and close the door to newcomers.
The consumer has not yet thrown in the towel. Retail sales rose 1.2% in August, and Andy Challenger describes it as “under pressure, but still there”.
American employment and the Fed: bitcoin between two fires
Official figures confirmed the trend on October 2. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American economy created only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Revisions sting more. July falls into negative territory (-10,000 jobs) and August goes from 162,000 to 133,000, or 60,000 jobs lost over two months.
This is a real headache for the Fed. The central bank raised its rates by 25 basis points on September 16, to 3.75-4%, in the face of underlying inflation which it still projects at 3.4% for 2026 according to the PCE index, its benchmark measure. The vast majority of committee members anticipate at least one additional increase by the end of the year. After the employment report, traders saw little chance of another turn of the screw from the October 28 meeting, CNBC reported on October 2.
For bitcoin, which is moving around $83,500 on October 12, the equation has two sides. Slowing employment removes the threat of another rate hike, which usually provides relief for risky assets. A consumer dropping out for good, on the other hand, would resemble the start of a recession, and in this scenario investors often sell what moves the most first.
