
AI-generated summary
Within the framework of the 4-year cycle theory, Bitcoin made a new ATH of 126 thousand dollars in October 2024, 47 months after the record of 69 thousand dollars in November 2021. During this period, Trump's election and policies affected prices.
Bitcoin, which gained momentum again in August and started to push 90 thousand dollars during this period, was running from peak to peak these days last year. The largest cryptocurrency made ATH with 126 thousand dollars on October 6, after a dreamy summer. This record of Bitcoin, which acts in accordance with the 4-year cycle theory, came exactly 47 months after the November record in 2021. And the largest cryptocurrency experienced a sharp decline after this peak.
Just as Bitcoin fell from 69 thousand dollars in 2021 to below 35 thousand dollars in February (2022), it also fell from 126 thousand dollars to 63 thousand dollars in February (2026), reigniting the 4-year cycle debate once again.
Trump raised it, Trump lowered it
In fact, Bitcoin first started its upward movement seriously in October 2024, exactly 2 years before this record. The fact that Trump, who openly supported the crypto world during the US presidential election campaigns, was ahead in the polls kept Bitcoin just below 70 thousand dollars. Trump's comfortable victory in November caused the 73 thousand dollars, which could not be surpassed for a long time, to break sharply upwards, and the largest cryptocurrency rose from 70 thousand dollars to over 100 thousand dollars in just 1 month.
However, although Trump was the main actor in the rise of Bitcoin, he also played a major role in its decline. Tariffs and the escalation of the Israel-Iran crisis brought a sharp decline in Bitcoin from 100 thousand dollars. In April 2025, when the tariff crisis was at its peak, Bitcoin dropped to 74 thousand dollars and there was an expectation of a larger decline. However, unexpectedly, the US and China postponed tariffs and started peaceful negotiations, which opened the door to new rises in Bitcoin.
Treasury companies craze…
After this door was opened, a crypto treasury company trend started to occur in the USA. This trend, which started with Bitcoin and Ether, continued with Solana, BNB, Worldcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. The rapid passage of the Genius Act, which regulates stable coins in the USA, by Congress further increased this trend. Bitcoin exceeded 120 thousand dollars again in August, and broke its historical record with 126 thousand dollars in October.
Collapse…
However, the happiness of the crypto world was left unfinished. While there was already a period of rise in which altcoins could not keep up with Bitcoin in any way, there was also the October 10 crash, which will not be forgotten for years. In the collapse, which is still discussed today and for which major stock exchanges are held responsible, liquidity was lost in many exchanges and market makers did not work. While prices crashed, many cryptocurrencies and altcoins reached zero levels. In fact, today most of these altcoins could not even rise to their old price levels again.
Bitcoin also fell to 102 thousand dollars that day and later recovered. However, the increase in geopolitical tensions, the outbreak of the Iran war and many other negative financial developments caused Bitcoin to lose many moving averages sequentially and fall to 60 thousand dollars in February and 58 thousand dollars in June.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Bitcoin's price may fluctuate in the range of 58-60 thousand dollars in the short term.
Likely · Within weeks
The crypto treasury craze may continue or slow down depending on regulators.
Possible · Within months

The US government transferred 833.6 BTC ($71 million) in the evening and 40,285 BNB ($32 million) in the morning, sending crypto assets totaling over $103 million to Coinbase Prime and an unknown address. These movements pushed Bitcoin below $84,000, leading to records in leveraged transactions.

While Bitcoin continues its rise amid global uncertainties and record-breaking bond interest rates, it is stated that there is a 'currency depreciation effect' behind this movement.

Bitcoin rose above $86,900 in the first week of October, approaching its highest closing level in the last 8 months. The historical record was broken in October last year and this month is called 'Uptober'.

In the last week, at least 6 crypto and Web3 projects such as Blast, Neon EVM, Router Protocol, Inlock, CoinEx Smart Chain and OneSwap and Shipyard have decided to terminate their activities. Closures often occurred due to financial sustainability issues, failure of revenues to cover operating costs, or the cessation of external financing. Projects like Blast and Router Protocol have given users time to move their assets to the Ethereum mainnet, while CoinEx will keep withdrawal services open until December 22, 2026.

In October 2026, $271 million worth of unlocking was completed in the first two days for altcoins such as SUI, EIGEN, BTW, 2Z and ENA. Additional unlocks worth $618 million are expected for the remainder of the month. With the largest circulating supply rate, 146.7 million tokens will be unlocked in APR on October 23, while the largest opening in dollar terms will occur in HYPE on October 6, worth $333 million.

Standard Chartered analysts predicted that Ethena's ENA token could reach $2 by the end of 2028, thanks to revenue model growth and USDe supply growth.