Bull market, yes, but... Bitcoin closed the week above its 365-day moving average then pushed to $87,400, its highest in eight months. And the unrealized profit margin of short-term traders now peaks at 33%.
Julio Moreno heads research at CryptoQuant and unreservedly validates this return of the bull market. He also warns that unrealized profits at this level have historically paved the way for waves of profit-taking.
Key Points
Recent holders' unrealized gain margin climbs to 33%, highest since December 2024
A single session saw 25,700 BTC in profits taken, strongest day of the year
Altcoin deposits on platforms are exploding and buying appetite is declining for both cash and derivatives
CryptoQuant targets $80,000, $71,000 and $67,000 as cushioning zones for a pullback
Bitcoin: Traders’ unrealized profits at their highest in 21 months
This crossing of the 365-day moving average (which it will be recalled that it serves as a conventional dividing line between an uptrend and a downtrend) was enough for CryptoQuant to make the change of regime. Its Bull Score Index, which aggregates ten on-chain and market indicators, displays 90 out of 100, in an “extremely bullish” zone.
The surge therefore has a downside. The latent profit margin for short-term holders (those whose bitcoins are less than 155 days old) reached 33%, its highest since December 2024. Comparable margins have already pushed traders to cash out, for lack of a better opportunity to lock in their gains.
The mechanics are already in motion. Holders made 25,700 BTC in profits in a single session, the equivalent of some $2.2 billion at current prices, and the biggest day of the year. Historically, these peaks precede local peaks.
Altcoins flock to exchanges
The same reflex is affecting altcoins. The seven-day cumulative inbound transactions to the platforms climbed to 76,000, the highest since October 2025. This previous peak came eleven days after bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, and just days after the wave of liquidations that swept the market.
The number of addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges followed the same slope, at 51,000. Julio Moreno insists on the nature of the movement, broad and not driven by a handful of large wallets. “When holders transfer their coins to exchanges, it is generally with the intention of selling,” he writes.
Demand is crumbling at the same time. Apparent spot demand, which compares the production of new bitcoins to the change in dormant stocks, contracted by 170,000 BTC in thirty days. On futures, the growth in speculative demand which was driving the rebound fell from 164,000 to 16,000 BTC in two weeks, we can read in the report cited by the specialized press.
“Without new demand, the rallies are struggling to continue,” summarizes the head of research at CryptoQuant. “With spot demand still contracting and futures growth at a standstill, the short-term upside potential is becoming more difficult to maintain.”
Supports to watch out for on bitcoin
CryptoQuant marks three fallback zones. The 365-day moving average, around $80,000, forms the first support in the event of a correction, before the 200-day moving average around $71,000 and the traders' realized price around $67,000.
As long as these thresholds hold, Julio Moreno speaks of a “healthy consolidation” in a still young bull market rather than a reversal of trend:
“Still a bull market, but with signs of fatigue. Stretched profit margins, record profit-taking in 2026, exploding altcoin flows and cooling demand warn of a near-term correction. »
The firm's on-chain readings obviously do not have oracle value. In March 2025, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju declared the end of the bull cycle, before publicly acknowledging his mistake five months later. Bitcoin reached its record high of $126,000 the following October.
