Bitcoin: retail sells while old wallets move

He who laughs last laughs best. Two on-chain signals tell the same story this week, each in their own way. On the one hand, small wallets continue to sell their Bitcoin despite a price which remains under pressure, far from the floor of spot demand already observed earlier this year. On the other, coins that have been dormant for years are starting to circulate again. Two movements which seem contradictory, but which can perhaps be read as two sides of the same coin. Decryption.

Retail is still selling, the accumulation score is close to the floor

The figures, relayed on September 7 by Crypto Briefing using CryptoQuant data, are unambiguous. Portfolios holding less than 10 BTC have displayed an accumulation trend score of -0.98 since the beginning of August, very close to the theoretical floor of -1, the maximum distribution level. Apparent demand for Bitcoin, an indicator that measures the imbalance between supply emerging from old wallets and new purchases, returned to negative territory in early September after a brief improvement in August.

This isn't really anything new. This same indicator had remained negative 208 days in a row until June 26, with lows at around -273,000 BTC. Small holders take their gains with each rebound in the price, rather than accumulating them. Whales buy intermittently, without enough consistency to absorb both this selling pressure and capital outflows from ETFs.

Historical bitcoiners start moving their coins again

While retail sells off its positions, a completely different cohort is stirring, that of long-time holders. According to Darkfost, an analyst for CryptoQuant, on September 5, the 90-day moving average of UTXO outflows (coins spent) among holders over five years climbed to 1,500 BTC. A doubling since May, when this average was half as high.

Be careful, however, not to cry too quickly about panic selling. Taking a coin out of your wallet does not necessarily mean selling it. Darkfost itself specifies: part of these movements could simply correspond to holders securing their funds, a logical reflex after the Coldcard breach which shook the community in recent months.

Two signals, a two-way reading

This is the crux of the problem. Retail sells in pain while the oldest hands in the market, those who have gone through several cycles without moving, get moving again. Coincidence of calendar or real change of regime? Difficult to decide with just one month of data.

One thing is certain. Historically, it is rarely the long-term holders who capitulate first. If they are moving today, it is perhaps less out of concern than out of opportunism, by repositioning pieces purchased at dizzying prices. Retail, for its part, looks at its much more recent purchase price and much closer to zero.