Bitcoin rises towards $82,000: rates relax, whales pick up the trough

Twenty-four hours to go from fear to greed. Bitcoin is trading around $81,900 this Friday, October 16 at 6:20 a.m., up 1.1% for the day. The overnight low is $79,806, the high is $82,508. The Fear & Greed index rose from 53 to 63 in a single session, from “neutral” to “greed”. Thursday's heist liquidated nearly $1 billion in positions. It did not break bitcoin support at $80,000, which the whales are defending.

Bitcoin and the Fed: Bullish bets fall below 30%

On Wednesday, US inflation for September came out at 3.7% year-on-year, compared to 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% over the month. Traders immediately increased the probability of a rate hike on October 27 and 28 to 53%. Bitcoin broke $81,000, then $80,000. Then bonds rebounded. The CME Group's FedWatch tool reduces this probability to 27.7% on Thursday, compared to 33.2% the day before. The cause is a strong rally in Treasury bonds. Several members of the Fed also tempered the idea of ​​an immediate gesture. The ten-year yield fell from 5.36% to 5.09%.

This reflux explains most of the rebound. A easing interest rate market gives risky assets the oxygen that the CPI had taken away from them. But the invoice is not canceled, only postponed. The same curve still gives almost a 90% chance of an increase in December. The current range of 3.75% to 4.00% already dates from an increase in September. The next CPI will fall on November 10, after the meeting.

Whales to buy, ETF to sell, bitcoin holds its $80,000

The buyers are not those of last year. US spot ETFs returned $261 million on Wednesday (IBIT -111 million, FBTC -153 million), after $176 million entered on Tuesday. Thursday's figures remained incomplete Friday morning, BlackRock having not yet published its own. Over the week, the balance is negative. And yet the price of bitcoin is holding up, supported by whales.

The explanation comes from elsewhere. According to Bitfinex, whales have accumulated around 60,000 BTC since the end of August, most between $80,000 and $86,000. This area now acts as support as long as they maintain their positions. Chainalysis confirms the fundamental movement in its North America report published Thursday. The United States once again became a net importer of bitcoins in 2026, a first since 2022. Institutions buy what individuals sell. On Thursday, 173,758 traders were liquidated for $929 million according to Coinglass, most of them on long positions.

On the chart side, trader Lennaert Snyder notes that bitcoin swept liquidity below $80,000 at the New York open before rising again. According to him, this validates a bullish scenario, with a first resistance at $83,000 and a magnet at $85,000. Over thirty days, BTC gained another 8.2%. Over seven days, it is exactly in balance.