Bitcoin’s rate cut relief stalls as service inflation flares

US services growth slowed in October, while the survey’s 12-month average prices index reached its highest level since April 2023. Persistent cost pressure complicates the case for rate relief that could support Bitcoin.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) October services report, released Nov. 4, put its headline PMI at 54.5, down from September’s 54.9. The reading remained above 50, indicating that services activity was still expanding.

The monthly prices index also eased to 73 from 74, but its 12-month average rose to 69.2, the highest since April 2023. The longer view points to persistent cost pressure even as the latest monthly reading retreats.

ISM’s diffusion indexes measure the direction and breadth of reported changes. A prices reading of 73 summarizes those survey responses, while an inflation rate measures the size of price changes in percentage terms. The rolling average summarizes that pressure across a longer window.

Business activity and new orders eased to 53.8 and 55.9, respectively, while the employment index rose to 51.4. Hiring strengthened alongside softer demand measures.

ISM said tariffs and fuel costs were the most frequently cited supply-chain issues. Some respondents had not yet passed higher costs through to customers, leaving the eventual effect on consumer inflation uncertain.

The Bitcoin link runs through policy expectations

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%-4% on Oct. 28, before the services release, and the central bank statement described inflation as elevated and said additional information would help determine the appropriate policy stance.

The possible benefit of softer activity runs through easier rate expectations and investors’ willingness to take risk. Persistent cost pressure complicates that route to relief, and establishing a change in financial conditions requires evidence of how markets price the outlook, beyond the survey itself.

An IMF working paper published in August 2023 found that US monetary tightening reduced a common crypto-price factor, meaning shared movements across crypto prices, through investors’ willingness to take risk, similar to the channel operating in equities.

That historical finding explains a plausible exposure, with any Bitcoin reaction to this particular survey requiring separate market evidence.

The next scheduled US checkpoint is the October employment report, due Nov. 6. As of Nov. 5, those results remain ahead and could change the balance between the growth and inflation concerns facing policymakers.

The test now is whether incoming data are followed by easier rate expectations and lower yields, which would strengthen the case for relief. Stronger Bitcoin buying without leverage could offer separate support through demand.