
US nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations, fueling a decline in bond yields and providing a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.
AI-generated summary
The Federal Reserve is currently evaluating interest rate adjustments based on inflation and labor market data. Bond yields have been volatile, reaching 24-year highs earlier in the week.
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $87,000 on Friday as US jobs data missed expectations.
Bitcoin tapped $87,200 but failed to make new multi-month highs as overhead resistance held.
September US nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations at 29,000, while the August and July figures were revised lower.
Analysts saw further BTC price upside on the back of falling US bond yields.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $87,229 on Bitstamp, just shy of new eight-month highs.
September nonfarm payrolls data came in below expectations, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs against an anticipated 84,000. August numbers, which had beat expectations on release, were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
US stocks gained at the Wall Street open as traders scaled back hawkish bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes following the weaker jobs data. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1% and 1.8%, respectively.
“This marks the third weakest jobs report of 2026,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed just an 18% chance of the Fed enacting a 0.25% rate hike at its October meeting, down from 64% a week ago.
US bond yields fell for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year yield at 5.573% and the 10-year at 5.2% at the time of writing. On Wednesday, both reached new 24-year highs as markets looked past softer August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge.
Bitcoin price action failed to break beyond multi-month highs seen in September, dropping back below $86,000 at the time of writing.
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on successive walls of ask liquidity on exchange order books keeping upside in check, with the latest band at $87,300 forming new resistance.
In a new analysis, trading firm QCP Capital argued that BTC/USD should still benefit from the softer labor-market print, with bond yields continuing to fall.
“For Bitcoin, a Treasury relief rally would provide the cleanest upside catalyst. The asset has already demonstrated resilience through a real-rate shock that pressured gold,” it wrote.
Meanwhile, trader Aksel Kibar saw that a successful support retest at $82,800 was already in place on the daily chart.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Federal Reserve interest rate hike probability for October remains at 18% based on current CME data.
Likely · Within weeks

Nvidia's stock reached a record high of $237.88 on Friday, pushing its market capitalization to approximately $5.7 trillion — the highest of any company globally. The surge follows strong AI-driven demand, a $150 billion share buyback expansion, and major infrastructure commitments from tech giants. Weak U.S. jobs data also reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, indirectly benefiting Nvidia amid its dominant position in AI chip markets.

U.S. job growth slowed sharply in September with only 29,000 jobs added, well below expectations, prompting a drop in Federal Reserve rate hike odds and boosting risk assets like Bitcoin, which rose 1.57% to $86,152.75 amid technical bullish signals and rising crypto market sentiment.

Nearly three-quarters of major UK financial institutions expect tokenization to reshape financial services, with faster payments and settlement as the top benefit, according to a Lloyds Banking Group survey of 100 senior decision-makers.

Crypto firms are raising capital with mixed results: Kalshi eyes a $40B valuation, while Blockchain.com targets a $4B-$6B IPO. Meanwhile, DWF Ventures reports most treasury companies trade below asset value, and Bitget faces challenges recovering $388M from a hack.

Federal Reserve data reveals conflicting liquidity signals for Bitcoin as Wednesday reserve snapshots show an $88.2 billion decline, while weekly averages rose by $17.9 billion. Analysts warn that mixing these metrics obscures actual cash movements and funding strain.

RealFi has launched USDrf and sUSDrf on the Cardano blockchain, aiming to connect stablecoin liquidity to real-world credit markets. The platform offers yield-bearing opportunities for users while implementing tiered access and loss-absorption mechanisms for institutions.