Bitcoin trading picked up, but sellers took the initiative

Bitcoin's latest weekly trading data showed sellers retaining the initiative even as turnover rose, leaving its recovery near $75,000 without a clear sign that aggressive buyers were taking control.

The Nov. 9 report from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode sets a cautious starting point ahead of today's US inflation release.

Reuters reported closing gains of about 2.4% for the S&P 500 and 2.7% for the Nasdaq Composite on Nov. 9, with cheaper oil helping relieve inflation worries. Bitcoin was trading near $75,000 on Nov. 9, according to Glassnode.

More trading, but sellers retain the initiative

Glassnode's latest Market Pulse put spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) at negative $92 million, compared with positive $7 million seven days earlier. Its spot volume indicator rose 13.3% to $6.4 billion from $5.6 billion.

CVD tracks the balance between aggressive buying and selling within the activity Glassnode measures. Negative CVD means aggressive selling outweighed aggressive buying in that measured activity.

The report's weekly indicators describe the demand conditions Bitcoin brought into the equity rally.

Farside Investors' completed Nov. 2-6 sessions show four aggregate outflow days and one inflow day, totaling $1,282 million in net outflows. Another $201 million left the funds on Nov. 9.

Glassnode put futures open interest at $37 billion, down 1.1% from $37.4 billion seven days earlier, and described the unwind as partial. Funding payments remained elevated while short-term holders were near break-even.

A price recovery would carry more weight if improving spot CVD showed buyers taking the initiative, while positive ETF flows persisted across completed sessions.

In its Nov. 4 analysis, Glassnode placed the short-term holder cost basis at $75,700 and the True Market Mean at $77,700. The first estimates what newer holders paid, while the second estimates the cost basis of active investors.

Below, Glassnode identified a broader $73,000-$76,000 retest band and said a sustained break below $73,000 would point to longer consolidation.

CPI tests Bitcoin's backdrop

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October CPI today. A favorable inflation reading could ease rate expectations and support risk appetite. As the Federal Reserve explains, expected policy rates affect broader interest rates and financial conditions.