There is one thing that Italians do not seem to have lost, despite years of inflation, price increases and less than encouraging economic forecasts: the desire to make a deal. If anything, they have learned to distinguish an opportunity from a discount disguised as an opportunity; a skill that, judging by the amount of promotions surrounding us, may soon deserve a place in school curricula.
Black Friday therefore continues to exert its charm, but the consumer who is preparing to face it is less willing to be seduced by a red card. Check, compare, check again; he asks the artificial intelligence for advice, but before entrusting it with his wallet he thinks twice and, a not particularly negligible detail for those who have been announcing the end of physical shops for years, continues to frequent them.
This new geography of convenience is illustrated by the Year-End Sales Events Consumer Study 2026 by Boston Consulting Group, which involved 10,220 consumers in ten countries, including 1,013 Italians. The research, also presented in the analysis For Year-End Sales Events, Trust Is the New Currency, highlights a transformation that goes well beyond the Christmas shopping season: price remains a formidable lever, but trust is becoming the criterion by which consumers decide whether an offer really deserves attention.
Black Friday resists, the wallet a little less
That Italians are worried about the cost of living is not exactly a discovery, what is, if anything, the extent to which this concern coexists with a still high propensity to purchase. 85% of those interviewed fear the increase in prices of essential goods and 81% believe that inflation will continue to be felt, yet 86% plan to take advantage of promotional events at the end of the year. Four percentage points less than in 2025, the most marked decline among the countries analysed, but still a participation higher than the international average.
What changes above all is the way in which the purchase is made. The average budget declared by Italians is 317 dollars, compared to the global average of 408 and the United States' 480; only 23% plan to spend more than last year, while 17% plan to reduce spending. The others, evidently, will try to make ends meet without completely giving up the pleasure of buying.
It is a balance that speaks well of the contemporary Italian consumer: not necessarily less interested in the products, but more attentive to the economic justification of each purchase. Black Friday, born as a celebration of shopping, thus ends up transforming into an exercise in managing the family budget, with all due respect to those who continue to describe it as the celebration of impulse.
Even the superfluous must find a good excuse
Prudence, after all, is not only measured by how much you spend, but by what you decide to put in your cart. 63% of the budget expected by Italians will be allocated to essential or low-priced products, six percentage points more than in 2025; an indication that suggests how promotions are used more and more often to buy what you need, possibly spending less, rather than to indulge in some unscheduled purchases.
This does not mean that desires have disappeared. Clothing remains the most popular category, indicated by 53% of those interviewed, followed by electronics with 45% and beauty and perfumes with 33%; furthermore, 59% plan to take advantage of discounts to purchase gifts. In short, Christmas continues to claim its share, but possibly at a reduced price.
The change is more subtle: we don't stop desiring, we look for a convincing reason to spend. And a discounted product, especially when it responds to a need or allows you to anticipate an already planned expense, offers a particularly effective justification.
For brands, this means that convenience cannot be reduced to a succession of discounts; it must become the ability to intercept real needs, offering assortments, prices and services consistent with consumers' priorities. A distinction that seems trivial, but which is not always reflected in the promotional crowding to which we are accustomed.
The physical store, reported missing, is in excellent health
Then there is another fact that deserves attention, especially in light of that singular retail habit of periodically announcing the disappearance of shops: 61% of Italians plan to buy both online and in physical sales points, while the share of those who intend to buy exclusively on the web drops from 30% to 26%.
Naturally, this is not a revenge of the shop on e-commerce, but the confirmation that the distinction between the two channels is of less and less interest to consumers, who use them based on convenience, product availability and the possibility of checking their characteristics and prices. Furthermore, physical shop windows influence the choices of 25% of those interviewed and advertising inside the shops of 19%: percentages that are anything but marginal in a market in which there is a tendency to identify innovation almost exclusively with digital.
Amazon remains the main reference for searching for offers, cited by 49% of Italians, but this does not stop consumers from returning to stores to see, compare and, possibly, complete the purchase.
Artificial intelligence is an excellent advisor. For payment, we will see
The most interesting news, however, concerns the entry of artificial intelligence into the purchasing path. In Italy, 57% of consumers say they have already used or want to use generative AI tools for shopping; the percentage rises to 76% among members of Generation Z and 65% among Millennials.
An adoption that could make one think of an imminent revolution, if it weren't for the fact that Italians seem to have rather precise ideas about what they are willing to delegate. Among those who use or plan to use these tools, 53% consider them useful for comparing products and an identical percentage for finding the best offers; just 17%, however, think of using it to find gift ideas, compared to 35% of the international average.
Even more telling is the level of autonomy consumers are willing to grant technology. 39% trust AI to compare prices and 36% to evaluate product features; however, availability drops to 10% when it comes to authorizing you to place an order upon approval and to 7% if the purchase were to take place without any confirmation.
In essence, we are ready to let artificial intelligence work for us, as long as it doesn't go to our heads. It can search, compare, suggest; when it comes time to pay, we still prefer to have the final say.
The data is particularly significant while the technology sector invests in agent commerce, i.e. in systems capable not only of assisting the consumer, but of carrying out some purchasing operations autonomously. The direction of innovation is clear, but customers' willingness to follow it through is a little less so. And it would be a mistake to confuse familiarity with a tool with the trust necessary to entrust it with economic decisions.
Fewer influencers, more checks. The end of shopping by suggestion?
While artificial intelligence is gaining ground, social media seems to be losing part of its ability to guide purchases. In Italy, 37% of consumers indicate them as a source of inspiration, nine percentage points less than in 2025; in the same period, the use of generative AI as an inspiration tool rose to 12%, doubling compared to the previous year.
It would be premature to talk about the decline of influencers, but the movement deserves attention because it suggests a shift from passive discovery to active research. Instead of simply encountering a product while scrolling through content, consumers are starting to query tools capable of comparing alternatives and providing answers that are closer to their needs.
Of course, a suggestion made by AI is not necessarily more independent than that of a creator; indeed, the growing presence of brands in the results generated by platforms opens up new questions of transparency and recognisability of commercial content. However, the consumer's expectations are changing, and they seem to ask for less inspiration as an end in itself and more elements to make decisions.
For companies, accustomed to competing for attention through increasingly spectacular content, a change of perspective may be necessary: it is not enough to get noticed, you also need to be able to answer questions and, possibly, with information that stands up to scrutiny.
The real promotion? Be credible
Italians love discounts, but they don't trust those who promise them too much, only 55% consider Black Friday offers credible; practically the world average (54%), far from the 62% of Americans. In short, almost one in two Italians looks at the reduced price with a certain suspicion and, perhaps, it would be a good idea to remember this before printing yet another price tag with a discount in large letters. What really convinces? Not the amazing promises, but the concrete guarantees. In the BCG ranking, built on the balance between positive and negative evaluations, the winners are the possibility of returning a product and obtaining a refund (68 points), the reputation of the brand (67), verified reviews (65) and transparency in price comparisons (63). In essence, the consumer wants to know who he buys from, how much he really saves and what happens if he changes his mind.
The old persuasion techniques are much less effective. Messages urging us to hurry because supplies are running out stop at 32 points; the review summaries produced by artificial intelligence at 21. The influencers, then, even slip into negative territory (-5). Apparently, being told that a product is unmissable is no longer enough to make it so.
The problem is not lowering prices, but raising confidence
The BCG research therefore tells something broader than the usual November discount rush: the Italian consumer continues to buy, but evaluates what he puts in his cart more carefully; uses new technologies without giving up control, alternates digital channels and physical stores without particular loyalty to one or the other and, above all, demands that the promised convenience is demonstrable.
For retailers, the challenge is not simply to add a few discount points, multiply promotional messages or adopt yet another artificial intelligence application. We need to build a system in which prices, information, services and guarantees provide a coherent experience, regardless of the channel used; because a customer who learns to verify everything is also a customer who is more difficult to convince with words alone.
Perhaps the real change is precisely this: for years Black Friday worked by making consumers believe that they would miss an opportunity if they didn't buy immediately. Today, the risk is moving to the other side of the counter: it is the brands that can lose a customer if they are unable to convince him that that opportunity is authentic and, recovering trust, unlike a price, is not something that can be fixed with a 30% discount.
