Blockchain Platform Bubblemaps Flags $2.4M Profit from US Military Operations Bets
Quick Look
- Bubblemaps identified nine wallets earning $2.4M with a 98% win rate on Polymarket contracts tied to US military operations, raising insider trading concerns.
- US lawmakers are proposing stricter regulations.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Blockchain data platform Bubblemaps identified a cluster of Polymarket wallets that profited significantly from bets on US military operations, raising concerns about insider trading. This has led to legislative proposals in the US to regulate such prediction markets.
Blockchain data platform Bubblemaps said it identified a cluster of Polymarket wallets that collectively earned $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on contracts tied to US military operations.
Nine wallets placed all their major bets just before major military developments, including the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, Bubblemaps wrote in a Monday X post.
The accounts were all funded through centralized cryptocurrency exchanges in a tight timeframe and made some minor losing bets on Feb. 20, which likely served to “avoid attention,” according to Bubblemaps. Four of them each made around $400,000 in profit on their bets that the US would strike Iran on Feb. 28.
The investigation highlights the growing insider trading concerns tied to decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. It aimed at curbing insider trading on prediction markets.
Source: Bubblemaps
While the data platform doesn’t have definitive proof that the accounts belonged to insiders, the onchain trail is “symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage,” Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of Bubblemaps, told Cointelegraph. He added:
“We cannot say with certainty that this was an attempt to hide, but it is suspicious that funds were routed through CEXs and third-party services before funding new Polymarket accounts, effectively covering their tracks.”
US lawmakers seek stricter regulations on war-related prediction market contracts
US lawmakers have previously proposed new laws to fight the growing insider trading concerns tied to military contracts on prediction markets.
On March 10, US Democratic Party Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to ban federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.
DEATH BETS Act. Source: Schiff.senate.gov
The bill came shortly after six Polymarket traders netted $1 million by betting on the US strike against Iran.
Separately, in late March, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order to curb public servants from insider trading on prediction markets tied to political or economic events they can influence.
Related: CFTC no-action letter eases event contract reporting rules
Polymarket, Kalshi, notional volume per category, weekly. Source: Dune
Politics-related contracts are currently the third-largest category on Polymarket, accounting for 12% of notional trading volume, and the fifth-largest on Kalshi, where they account for 0.7% of weekly trading volume, according to Dune data.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
US lawmakers will pass legislation to ban or heavily regulate contracts tied to war and assassination on federally regulated prediction markets.
Likely · Within months
Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi will face increased scrutiny and may implement stricter Know Your Customer (KYC) or anti-insider trading measures.
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Did the individuals trading on Polymarket have direct insider information?
- Will the proposed legislation be enacted and how effective will it be?
- What measures are prediction market platforms taking to prevent insider trading?
- What is the full extent of funds routed through CEXs and third-party services to obscure trading activity?
