BND boss Jäger warns of violent conflict with Russia

Martin Jäger practically falls into the house with the door. The President of the German Foreign Intelligence Service is supposed to be the first to report to the Bundestag at this meeting; he is supposed to present the current security situation from the perspective of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND). Once a year, the heads of the three German intelligence services have to appear publicly before the parliamentary control committee.

After just a few minutes, terms such as "aggravation of the situation", "dangerous confrontation" and "defense case" are mentioned. And Jäger speaks of an impending “violent conflict with Russia.” It sounds like an extraordinary warning. But the choice of words must be read precisely. The BND chief does not say that a war with Russia is imminent. It describes a risk and places it in a larger context.

According to Jäger, Russia is already waging a “shadow war” against Germany and other European countries. This includes intimidation, cyberattacks and preparations for attacks. All of this is causing damage in Germany. The message from the head of the intelligence service could be something like: A war doesn't just start when tanks roll out.

Warnings from last year expanded

This assessment is not new. At the public hearing in October 2025, BND President Jäger spoke of an “icy peace” in which the line between war and peace was becoming increasingly blurred. If necessary, Russia cannot shy away from direct military conflict with NATO. In summary, while Jäger's warning a year ago was that Russia could challenge NATO and Europe, it now reads: Germany itself could be drawn into a violent confrontation. Because, according to Jäger, Germany is one of Russia's main targets.

The background is the war against Ukraine: the federal government is supporting the country attacked by Russia with more military material than any government of any other EU state. The President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Sinan Selen, spoke of Russia's willingness to commit sabotage and killings. He referred to the incident at Halle/Leipzig airport at the beginning of August with a drone prepared with explosives.

No information on an immediate attack

In addition to the warnings of further hybrid attacks from the Russian side, it is also worth taking a look at what the intelligence service chiefs did not say. They did not bring up an imminent Russian attack on Germany or NATO. Further military provocations are more likely, especially in the Baltic states that border Russian territory.

BND boss Jäger took up the year 2029, which is repeatedly circulating among high-ranking Bundeswehr representatives: They estimate that from 2029 Russia will be able to launch an attack on NATO territory. Jäger also thinks this is possible. But he made it clear at the hearing that there was no information about Russia's actual preparations for such a scenario. Warning of violent conflict is therefore not the same as warning of imminent war.

Strong alliance - thanks to NATO and the EU

It is clear that Germany is faced with a more difficult security situation today than it was a few years ago. The intelligence services report more frequent attempts at espionage, sabotage and influence peddling. President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Selen expressly said that there had already been successful defensive actions - but at the same time the situation was getting worse.

The fact that intelligence services can detect and prevent attacks is part of the security record. In addition, Germany is in a strong alliance - thanks to NATO and European partners.

Nevertheless, the intelligence service chiefs made it clear today: they need more powers to do their work. Martina Rosenberg, President of the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD), pointed out that the current MAD law dates back to 2004. Communication and the Internet have changed fundamentally since then. The federal government has now initiated a reform of the intelligence services: for example, it involves more options for computer and cell phone monitoring and the storage of connection data.

Security is threatened

What remains of this public hearing by the intelligence services is, above all, a signal: Germany has long been in conflict with authoritarian states without there being an open war. The sharp words of the BND chief express that the security authorities must prepare for this situation.

How Germany responds to this - for example with more deterrence or more powers for the intelligence services - is likely to become one of the central security policy questions in the coming years.