Bo Torbjörn Ek: Swedish calm or Danish alarm - who is right about Russia?

Security policy signaling depends on culture, it became clear when the government presented its updated picture of the security situation.

For weeks we have been able to follow European intelligence chiefs speaking out about Russia's increasing appetite for risk after the drone incident in Leipzig.

Denmark's military intelligence service, FE, spoke in September of a "low but growing" risk of a limited Russian attack on NATO and that an invasion "cannot be ruled out".

The Swedish government stood in front of the press to downplay that message. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) said that Sweden has the same intelligence information as Denmark, Finland and other countries.

- You can choose to underline different things, Kristersson said.

Then he threw his arms out and smiled quickly.

- There are also some cultural differences, I would say, in how you express yourself. This is not least noticeable when you look at some Nordic countries.

The nod to Denmark was obvious.

Sweden thus leans more towards the Finnish Alexander Stubb school, which thinks that those who are pushing for a Russian invasion should take a sauna, a nice bath and then deal with the situation, as Stubb said on Fox News.

At the other end of the rhetoric are Denmark and Poland. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski warns that Russia is planning "something big" already this year.

The messages are spreading – and this can create confusion among citizens. Who is right and what will happen? Excessive calm can have the opposite effect and create anxiety. Excessive warnings can dull the ears of the public so that they no longer listen.

But in reporting on Russia's warlike intentions, apples and pears are sometimes mixed up. There are different degrees of attacks against NATO in the intelligence assessments.

1. Everyone agrees that the Russian hybrid campaign against Europe will accelerate.

2. Some flag a limited attack, such as a robot or drone against a logistics center, or a minor operation in a NATO country. A way to test the cohesion of the alliance.

3. No one states that a major Russian invasion is imminent. Although the Danish FE writes that such an event cannot be ruled out, it is also stressed that it is "highly unbelievable".

At home, at the same time, there is an unclear post-election period, without a new government. It is a situation where an adversary could perceive a weakness, launch influence operations and act against Sweden.

The government wanted to be clear here.

- A transitional government is not limited when it comes to protecting Swedish interests, said Ulf Kristersson.

That signal was as much aimed at the Swedish audience as at Moscow.