Brazil defines its future in polarized presidential elections between Lula and Bolsonaro

The atmosphere is anything but pleasant: the celebration of democracy that is electing a president will not exactly have overtones of celebration today in Brazil, a polarized and tense country that will decide whether or not South America turns completely to the right.

"We must vote aware that there is no need to go to a second round. We have to end this election on Sunday, I ask for the revolutionary dedication of the people of Rio de Janeiro!" Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, current president, said this Friday in his final campaign event in Rio de Janeiro.

Lula, who will turn 81 this month, is seeking a fourth term to prevent the return to power of the Bolsonaro family, which governed the country between 2019 and 2023.

"There is a real possibility of our victory in the first round," said Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, candidate of the hard right, who asked his voters and those of other political options to avoid the second round scheduled for October 25.

"They may be the bloodiest and dirtiest days in the entire history of Brazil. Imagine everything the Government is capable of doing," added the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for leading a failed coup attempt.

For the first time in the democratic era that Brazil inaugurated in 1985, the two main candidates have avoided facing each other in television debates, determined to reserve their best weapons for the second round.

Or not, because what Lula and Bolsonaro are trying to achieve is a victory above 50% of the vote that makes that second round unnecessary. In a context of virtual tie, it is unlikely, but not impossible. The latest polls mark a decline in third options, something that EL MUNDO heard this week from many voters: they would like to vote for the centrist Ronaldo Caiado, for example, but they prefer not to give the rival a chance and go directly to the winning option already in the first round. The same is happening with the candidacy of the writer Augusto Cury, the activist Renan Santos and the politician Romeu Zema.

decisive country

Brazil, the largest and most populous country in Latin America, as well as the one with the highest GDP, is decisive in a region increasingly leaning to the right: if Bolsonaro conquers the Planalto Palace, only the Mexican Claudia Sheinbaum, in the north, and the small Uruguay of Yamandú Orsi, in the south, will keep the torch of the left lit.

Thus, what happens in the South American giant is of global interest and turns Brazil into the scene of suspicions, conspiracies and international tensions.

Lula's tough position against the Israeli Government of Benjamin Netanyahu, his support for the Palestinian cause, his preeminent role in the BRICS and the almost permanent tensions with the United States of Donald Trump make Brazil a very attractive piece for the global hard right. This includes a neighbor in the south, Argentine President Javier Milei, who never tires of insulting his Brazilian counterpart and supporting Bolsonaro.

In turn, the desire for Lula to continue in power and avoid the return of Bolsonarism unites figures such as the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, the German Friedrich Merz, the British Andy Burnham and the Spanish Pedro Sánchez, among others.

The international experience with the Government of Bolsonaro Sr. was not good: the Brazilian's sit-in on Macron is remembered. Bolsonaro chose to go to the hairdresser instead of meeting French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and when Macron found out, he harshly crossed him at a reception.

Brazilians, however, are not up for so many subtleties today, because the election is posed from both sides with total drama. "Lula bankrupted Brazil," say the Bolsonaro supporters without the data supporting that statement. "It's democracy or Bolsonaro," the Lulistas summarize, perhaps forgetting that in democracy you sometimes win and sometimes you lose.

There is, however, one point in favor of Lula's supporters and his Workers' Party (PT) in this regard: the Brazilian Justice considers it proven that Bolsonaro led an attempted coup d'état between the end of 2022 and the assault on the Plaza de los Tres Poderes on January 8, 2023. And that is why it convicted the former president and several of his closest collaborators.

The relationship with the United States will also predictably influence the election. At the closing of the campaign in Rio, Lula stated that "no gringo is going to come and put their hands in Brazil", a phrase that inflames the spirits of his followers, but also exposes the Bolsonaros, unconditionally aligned with Trump, who has fried the country with tariffs.

The left assures that, if Bolsonaro wins, his Government will be remotely controlled from the White House. And the surprising thing is that, consulted by EL MUNDO, an overwhelming majority of Bolsonaro voters see the United States controlling Brazil as a desirable horizon.

If this happened, the political situation in South America would be unprecedented. With Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in Venezuela and the hard right governing in Buenos Aires, Bogotá, Lima, Santiago de Chile, Quito, Asunción and La Paz, the Government of Washington would be faced with a unique opportunity to finish recovering that backyard that it was losing at the hands of Beijing. Last Friday, the United States took advantage of a false bomb threat to close its embassy and consulates in Brazil.

Another important actor in this electoral process is justice, both the Supreme Federal Court (STF), discredited as never before in its history, and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which is not going through its best moment either. Justice plays a fundamental role in Brazil, it is at times a government above the government. Bolsonaro accuses her of serving Lula, who has a former Minister of Justice and his former personal lawyer among his STF judges.

The night promises emotions, because the count traditionally gives an initial advantage to the right with the votes in the southern states, but then it is balanced with those in the northeast, traditionally favorable to the PT.