The PSOE debates whether to advance elections or wait to wear down the right

The abyss of a new period of reflection grips the PSOE, while all scenarios are being weighed in La Moncloa. In the party and the Government there is a division of opinion between those who are in favor of bringing forward elections and those who think that it is better to temporize a little and take advantage of the social mobilization to wear down the right and give time for the left to organize. In this last sector, according to socialists consulted by this newspaper, they are committed to "enduring the push", "warming up the atmosphere a little more in the streets and social networks" and within a few weeks to present another ambitious package of housing measures and other matters, as if they were Budgets, and when they knock it down, call them in the first quarter of 2027.

«What has happened is still not enough to call. "The engine needs to be warmed up more," reflects a person with extensive knowledge of internal gears. "Citizens are going to abandon the parties that have rejected the housing measures in Congress," oppose the supporters of the advance. «They are going to pay for it. "PP and Junts voters also have problems accessing housing." Another argument from those in favor of the polls: "It makes no sense to wait for the Budgets to knock you down." An autonomous leader makes this reflection: «We are in the situation we are in. When the left fails to be useful to the people in Parliament because we lack strength, we must give the citizens a voice.

These opinions - Sánchez has personally consulted officials, leaders and ministers since Thursday - and the impact of this weekend's demonstrations - with 70,000 attendees yesterday at the Madrid one according to the Government Delegation and half a million according to the organizers - are monitored in Moncloa. "The volume is only one of the many indicators to consider," the president's team stated yesterday without wanting to assess the scope of the protests.

In the presidential complex the calendar is kept in mind at all times. This is what those who work there define as "counting Sundays." That is, always keep in mind, and more so these days, when the elections could be. There are 52 Sundays a year and not all of them are valid. For example, in a scenario of imminent advance, November 29 is not the same as December 6, in the middle of the long weekend.

Pedro Sánchez has a very large team in La Moncloa within the National Policy department - reporting directly to the Chief of Staff of the President of the Government - that provides him with polls, tracking, social media reports and data on a daily basis. They are the numbers to complete the "political nose" that feeds the decisions of the Chief Executive.

Judicial calendar

In these analyses, according to people familiar with them, aspects such as: the date of the possible elections are considered; the context, the judicial calendar and the international scenario. This last point would be the one that would have the least weight, but, for example, it is important to know that the midterm elections in the US will be held on November 3. Regarding the judicial calendar, Moncloa and Ferraz face decisive appointments in the coming months, from the trial of Begoña Gómez to the possible accusation of the party in some of the open cases, such as that of the sewers.

In the context, the mobilization in the streets, the protest and citizen unrest are valued, analyzed and weighed, as has been said, but, above all, to whom it is directed. Other variables are also taken into account, such as the Ceuta crisis, which remains latent now under the radar, but will return to the fore at any time. Regarding the judicial calendar, although it is something that the Government does not control, estimates are made about decisions and their impact.

"These analyzes are important, especially at a time when there is no majority for the Government and the scenario is complicated and with the prospect that it will become more difficult every day," say those who know these ins and outs of the decisions. "You have to have all the scenarios and possibilities on the table so that the person who has to make the decision has all the information." Sánchez already threatened to throw in the towel on two previous occasions: during the five days of reflection in 2024 after learning of the judicial investigation into his wife and at the beginning of the summer of 2025, when after the report on Santos Cerdán he considered his resignation.

"This serves to mobilize," they say from Sánchez's team, alluding to the rejection of the two housing decrees and the protests in the street. "We are more than the right and what has happened will be translated at the polls." One fact: despite the president insistently proclaiming that legislatures "last four years, also when the left governs," in both 2019 and 2023 he brought forward the call by a few months. In the first case, after seeing how he did not get the Budgets; in the second due to the electoral failure of the PSOE in the local and regional elections.