Brazil faces a likely runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro

As soon as Flávio Bolsonaro cast his vote on Sunday morning, he declared a “movement of revolt” in his favor. Voters from other candidates defected to him, the right-wing presidential candidate said after casting his vote in Rio de Janeiro. “Brazil needs change, and the only way to change is Flávio Bolsonaro.”

A good hour later, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was also confident of victory after casting his vote in São Bernardo do Campo. “What is at stake is the decision on a project for Brazil,” said the 80-year-old president, who is seeking his fourth term in office. The country must choose between “strengthening democracy and barbarism”. Lula played down the fact that his challenger had caught up in the most recent polls. The result of the election is decisive.

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Likely runoff election

More than 158 million Brazilians are called to vote this Sunday. Polling stations across the country have been open since 8 a.m. local time. However, the latest polls make a second round of voting on October 25 seem more likely for the presidential election than the immediate victory promised by both candidates. The Datafolha poll saw Lula on Saturday with 45 percent of the valid votes and Bolsonaro with 42 percent. At Quaest, the two were practically tied at 46 to 45 percent. Other institutes also saw neither of them safely above the 50 percent mark necessary for a victory in the first round of voting.

What some of the polls also revealed was the lack of enthusiasm among Brazilians. The election ends a campaign that was both highly polarized and remarkably listless. Lula and Bolsonaro never met directly in a televised debate. Both focused on risk avoidance in the final phase. Concrete proposals for the next four years took a back seat. Personal attacks, allegations of corruption and political affairs dominated the election campaign.

Discontent and pessimism

In Datafolha's survey, 69 percent of respondents said they felt unsafe when thinking about their country. 62 percent are discouraged, 61 percent are sad and 57 percent are afraid of the future. Pessimism increased rapidly in the final weeks of the election campaign.

A study by the Travessia Institute for the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo” also paints a picture of an election based on rejection. 46 percent of those surveyed said they voted for their candidate primarily so that someone else would not become president. 42.5 percent name “hope” as the feeling they associate with the election. Behind this, however, comes contempt, revolt and discouragement. Almost 60 percent say that the election advertising on television and radio did not reach them at all.

The crisis facing Brazil is not economic. Unemployment is at just over five percent, which is historically low. Incomes have risen and inequality has fallen. Nevertheless, perceptions of the situation have recently worsened. High food prices put a strain on households, many families are in debt, and high interest rates slow down consumption and investment. Industrial production has recently declined. At the same time, national debt is more than 80 percent of economic output. Whoever moves into the presidential palace in January must therefore support the economy and at the same time stabilize public finances.

There are also problems that cannot be measured in economic data. The fear of crime is great. Organized crime is increasingly penetrating the legal economy and institutions. Added to this is the scandal surrounding the collapsed Banco Master. The Brazilian Federal Police's investigation into this multi-billion dollar fraud case has revealed a network of contacts, transactions and payments that includes well-known politicians and even Supreme Court judges. Flávio Bolsonaro is also under investigation.

The Supreme Court, which has intervened increasingly in political conflicts in recent years, has long been part of the polarization. According to a recent survey, only 34 percent of Brazilians trust the court and 49 percent do not. However, this dissatisfaction does not benefit the candidates who promise a break with the two dominant camps. The greater the rejection of the other side, the stronger the incentive to vote for Lula or Bolsonaro in the first round. The election will therefore decide less about which Brazil voters want than about which one they absolutely do not want.