Luis Inácio Lula da Silva is a regular guest on the world stage: as Brazil's president, he has given the opening speech at the UN General Assembly in New York ten times. His appearance this year was all about the election campaign.
Less than two weeks later, 158 million Brazilians are voting for a new head of state as well as governors and parliamentarians: It is a vote on "whether Brazil is heading towards a future with greater opportunities or falling back into a past of exclusion," said Lula in New York.
The left-wing politician, now 80 years old, is now aiming for a fourth term in office. He points to his successes: social programs that lifted millions out of hunger and poverty, growing exports, significantly less deforestation in the Amazon. He also presented himself before the UN General Assembly as an old-school statesman who insisted on Brazil's sovereignty and a multipolar world order.
It was also a message to the speaker who appeared there directly after him: US President Donald Trump. "Brazil doesn't fit in anyone's backyard," explained Lula, referring to Washington's renewed interest in Latin America and its raw materials.
Lula vs. Bolsonaro reloaded?
At the same time, thousands of kilometers away, in northern Brazil, a man wearing a national jersey climbed into the back of a truck. He was holding the framed portrait of his father in his hands. Brazil needs someone to "stand up to this rotten system," he shouts to a crowd also dressed in green and yellow. "They tried to silence Bolsonaro - they didn't succeed. And we move on!"
However, the father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is in house arrest and sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup. From the perspective of the Bolsonaro family and their supporters, however, he is a political prisoner.
His eldest son Flávio is now set to take over his political inheritance. During the election campaign, he focused on similar themes to his father: God, family, fatherland - and on a tough hand against criminals. The issue of public safety is central to this election campaign, and there is support from the USA, which has declared Brazil's drug gangs to be "terror organizations". Flavio Bolsonaro said he would “declare war on narco-terrorists.” “Until victory!” he shouts from the stage. The father is his political capital, but he lacks the charisma of the senior.
Is Brazil also moving to the right?
As in 2022, it will be Lula versus Bolsonaro in Brazil. But in addition to the importance of the duel for the country's future, another question arises for all of Latin America: Will Brazil remain a counterweight to a region that is moving ever further to the right - or will the country join the new pro-Trump bloc in South America?
From Argentina and Chile to Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia to El Salvador, allies of the government in Washington are now in power in most countries in the region.
From the Monroe to the Donroe doctrine
In Brasilia, concerns that Washington could influence the elections are growing for geopolitical interests, says David Magalhães, who researches the new global right in Brazil. "The moment Trump unveiled his new national security strategy, he declared Latin America to be America's backyard again."
In the global competition with China, Trump is demanding dominance over the region and its strategic raw materials and resources, said Magalhães.
The elections in Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America and the fourth largest democracy in the world, are of enormous importance, said Magalhães.
However, many voters in Brazil see the political polarization of society negatively. We need new faces, new ideas, says 21-year-old bike courier Cauã Santos Souza. Brazil has so much potential, but little of it reaches people.
"Issues like education or the economy, appropriate salaries, that's what we need. The prices should fall a little. Because even if your salary increases - everything becomes more expensive." A liter of milk used to cost two Brazilian reals, today it costs seven.
Depending on the poll, 40 to 50 percent reject both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. But there is no promising alternative, and so it comes back to the old duel. And every minute that he spends on current politics means less time to work, says Santos Souza. If it wasn't mandatory, he says, he wouldn't vote at all.
