Vagner Mateus dos Santos is a successful local politician. In Nova Iguaçu, a large city on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro, the entrepreneur received more votes than any other city council candidate in the local elections two years ago. Now the politician known as Vaguinho Neguinho is taking the next step. On Sunday, when Brazilians elect not only presidents and governors but also senators, representatives and more than a thousand members of regional parliaments, he wants to enter the Rio state parliament. But something happened to him on the way there.
In mid-September, Rio's regional electoral court, or TRE for short, rejected his candidacy. The judges see Vaguinho's strong connection to organized crime in the Baixada Fluminense, the densely populated belt in northwest Rio. According to the investigation, he is said to have had contacts with leaders of criminal groups. Because Vaguinho is appealing the decision, it is not yet final.
This text comes from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
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But things aren't looking good for Vaguinho. What the investigators have gathered about him reads like a small map of Rio's underworld. A federal police report mentions contacts with the Comando Vermelho, one of Brazil's most powerful drug gangs, the rival Terceiro Comando Puro and militias. The latter are usually armed groups of former or active security forces who control entire neighborhoods and earn money there with protection money and their own services. Prosecutors at Electoral Justice speak of Vaguinho's remarkable political reach into various criminal groups.
One episode in the investigation files is particularly graphic. Vaguinho is involved in a telecommunications company. According to the investigation, he was contacted by a man who claimed to be the boss of a Comando Vermelho drug sales point. He wanted an internet connection for his point of sale in the Paraíso district. Instead of contacting the company, he wrote to the politician and entrepreneur directly. In other messages and photos, investigators saw links to men nicknamed “Cientista” and “Tubarão” who are associated with the region's militias.
Also mentioned is the exchange with a woman who complained about being stolen from by militia members. According to the police report, Vaguinho said someone would take care of it. The woman later got her things back. In another case, a member of the Terceiro Comando Puro is said to have arranged meetings between Vaguinho and a leader of the gang. According to financial records, Vaguinho loaned this man 40,000 reais. Between March 2020 and February 2024, investigators recorded movements of around 14.2 million reais on his accounts. That alone doesn't prove a crime, but it is part of a long list of strong evidence for the investigators.
There were suspicious money movements of more than 60 million euros
Vaguinho, who denies the allegations, was the target of a search as part of a police operation back in August. The federal police and the public prosecutor's office in Rio are investigating an armed organization that, according to their findings, has dominated parts of the Baixada Fluminense economically and territorially since at least 2013. She is said to have intimidated residents and entrepreneurs and forced services on them. Financial investigators found suspicious money movements of more than 350 million reais, which corresponds to almost 60 million euros, among people and companies in the network. The investigators speak of an organized system with a political arm and evidence of infiltration of state institutions.
Vaguinho is by no means an isolated case. Where criminal groups control territory and decide who can enter a neighborhood, do business in it or campaign, political power also arises. A study by the Universidade Federal Fluminense and the Fogo Cruzado Institute found that in 2024, almost four million people in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area lived in areas controlled or influenced by armed groups. That corresponds to almost 35 percent of the population. About 3.4 million lived under direct control.
In another research paper, political scientists Bruno Pantaleão and Isabella Montini examined how this rule affects voting behavior. They combined election results with geographic data on the spread of militias in Rio, showing that votes in these areas were more concentrated among individual candidates than usual. Politicians with suspected ties to militias benefited disproportionately.
The business of political influence is not limited to the militias. Drug gangs active across the country, such as the Comando Vermelho from Rio and the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) from São Paulo, are also trying to expand their influence on the state and politics. Research by the magazine “Piauí” identified a total of 80 candidates in five elections between 2016 and 2024 who were being investigated for suspected direct connections to militias or criminal gangs. 49 of them were elected. This year, prosecutors have challenged at least 23 candidacies in six states because of alleged ties to organized crime.
Election judges can intervene before a criminal case ends
The electoral justice system uses a new approach. It cites an existing constitutional article that prohibits parties from using paramilitary organizations. The Supreme Electoral Court now concluded that the candidacy of a member of a paramilitary or comparable criminal organization can also be prohibited. A legally binding criminal conviction is not absolutely necessary. Election judges can intervene before a criminal case is completed if they believe there is sufficient evidence of a connection to organized crime.
The interpretation leaves considerable scope for discretion. In Mato Grosso do Sul, for example, the electoral court approved two candidates, even though both are accused in a criminal case against an alleged gambling ring that is also accused of arms trafficking and murders. Contacts between politicians and criminals, the judges argued, did not prove a paramilitary apparatus of violence. In São Paulo, the public prosecutor's office failed in its attempt to prevent the candidacy of former mayor Ney Santos because of alleged ties to the PCC.
The case of the Brazão brothers shows how far criminal networks have penetrated established politics. Domingos Brazão was a four-time member of the Rio state parliament and moved to its Court of Audit in 2015. His brother Chiquinho first sat in the Rio city parliament and later in the national congress in Brasília. In February they were each sentenced to 76 years and three months in prison after they were found to have planned the murder of left-wing city councilor Marielle Franco and her driver Anderson Gomes in Rio de Janeiro in 2018. Chiquinho had already lost his mandate last year.
Infiltration by organized crime has now become a campaign issue itself, as the last television duel for the governorship in São Paulo showed. Fernando Haddad accused incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas of having politically supported the family of the former president of the city parliament Milton Leite. Leite has recently been in custody and is being investigated in connection with the PCC's alleged infiltration of bus companies. Tarcísio countered with the case of left-wing city councilor Senival Moura, who was also arrested on suspicion of links to a PCC money laundering scheme.
The case of the Brazão brothers in Rio shows even more clearly how deeply criminal networks can penetrate established politics. Domingos Brazão was by no means politically isolated. When he ran for auditor general in 2015, he received 61 of 66 votes in the regional parliament and support across multiple parties. The then regional representative and current presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro also voted for him.
Bolsonaro wants to punish everyday crime harshly
Today, security is a central issue in Bolsonaro's presidential election campaign, which has developed into a duel between him and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and is unlikely to be decided until a runoff election in three weeks. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of an attempted coup, is taking a tough stance against everyday crime, stricter punishments and new prisons. He wants to classify the PCC and Comando Vermelho as “narco-terrorist” organizations, thereby following Washington’s line. He also promises tough action against the militias, but without classifying them as terrorist organizations.
Bolsonaro's proximity to the militia milieu in Rio was also repeatedly noticed. In addition to his vote for Brazão, there are other documented points of contact. As a member of parliament, for example, Bolsonaro campaigned for honors for the then police officer Adriano da Nóbrega, who was later classified by investigators as a leading figure in a militia. Nóbrega's relatives worked at times in Bolsonaro's parliamentary office.
Another case brings us even closer to the present. In 2023, Bolsonaro, then already a senator, provided almost 200,000 reais from parliamentary funds for a football project in Rio. According to investigative documents reported by Folha de S.Paulo, an employee of his office negotiated the release with a man who was later convicted of membership in the same armed criminal organization as the Brazão brothers. Bolsonaro's office said the funds were allocated properly.
All of this does not make Flávio Bolsonaro a case like Vaguinho Neguinho. There are no corresponding charges against him for membership in a criminal organization. In June, the Supreme Electoral Court even had social media posts removed that linked him to criminal gangs without sufficient evidence. However, it has been documented for years that there were points of contact between people from the militia milieu and the Bolsonaro family. The question was where political contacts end and criminal influence begins.
In the case of Vaguinho, the electoral justice system believes that this limit has been exceeded. Nevertheless, his name will be on the voting machine on Sunday because he is taking action against the rejection of his candidacy. Voters can give him their vote. In his case, it is not only the voters who decide whether Vaguinho ultimately makes it into the regional parliament, but also the judiciary.
