Chancellor Merz is traveling to Kiev for the second time to show support for Ukraine

Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv on Sunday morning for a visit. It is the second time that he is traveling to the Ukrainian capital as Chancellor. Because of the difficult security situation, such visits are always kept secret. Merz arrived on a special train, but recently the Russian attackers have also increasingly attacked the Ukrainian rail infrastructure. The exact program items for the day will only be officially announced after they have taken place. The Chancellor will be accompanied by Economics Minister Katherina Reiche and ten entrepreneurs from the armaments and energy sectors.

He had traveled to Kiev “because Ukraine needs all our support for the coming weeks,” he said upon his arrival. "The fifth winter of war will soon begin for people. Russia is bombing cities, residential buildings and thermal power plants." But the Ukrainians did not let Russia's terror get them down. "I will tell President Zelensky today: 'You can continue to count on our help.'"

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The visit is a crucial piece of the puzzle in the federal government's diplomatic choreography in recent weeks. On the one hand, Berlin wanted to use this to make clear its continued support for Ukraine, both to Russia and to its partners. On the other hand, the willingness to switch to a path of negotiations should also be demonstrated. Even if Russia still seems unwilling to do so.

Conversations with Witkoff and Kushner

The federal government sees Ukraine's need to defend itself against the fierce Russian air raids, especially as winter approaches - while Russia has been suffering significantly greater losses on the front for months, up to 40,000 men a month. In addition to securing financial support for Ukraine, Berlin is trying to help, among other things, with cooperation in drone development and the global procurement of anti-aircraft missiles for the Patriot systems.

This choreography included conversations between the Chancellor's foreign policy advisor Günter Sautter and the security advisors from Paris and London with the American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Kiev at the beginning of September after their visit to Moscow. These security advisors from the so-called E3 then met again with the American and Ukrainian sides at the UN General Assembly in New York.

Chancellor defends Ukraine policy

Finally, foreign ministers from Germany and Russia met in New York for the first time in four years. Johann Wadephul had been weighing this up with the Chancellor for a long time and then agreed on it at short notice. It not only proved that the Russian side is not ready to give in. This conversation also opened up the possibility of contacting the Russian side at other levels in the future, should this be necessary.

Last week, Merz not only spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Above all, on Thursday he gave a key foreign policy speech at the awarding of the Westphalian Peace Prize, in which he warned of the danger from Russia and defended support for Ukraine even against criticism from within the country: "Above all, we want Russia to end its war of aggression against Ukraine and return to the European peace order," he said. Russia is not ready for that today. Germany and Europe should therefore not waver but must “remain firm,” said Merz.

Germany will not allow itself to be divided, “not by hybrid attacks, not by agitation on social media controlled by Moscow bots and not by the slogans of the AfD and its Russian backers.” Merz said it was right to support Ukraine with all our might. If it is not possible to “stop Moscow,” “the Russian war machine will sooner or later turn against us, against NATO itself.”

Russia primarily attacks civilian targets

Merz comes to Kiev at a time when the Ukrainian capital is at the center of Russian air strikes more than ever before in this war. Russia has been attacking Kiev nonstop in recent weeks with new jet-powered drones. Given the thinning supplies of anti-aircraft missiles, Ukraine is also finding it increasingly difficult to defend against ballistic missiles. At night, Russia fires ballistic missiles, primarily with mobile launchers, from the Bryansk or Kursk border areas.

The air strikes on Kyiv primarily target the Ukrainian economy. The permanent alarm causes traffic chaos and business closures. Warehouses and sorting centers in the surrounding area, as well as shopping centers and gas stations in the city, are affected. In August, more civilians died in Kiev than in any other region, even though many are much closer to the front.

The center of the capital is no longer safe either; a few weeks ago a drone hit the main building of the domestic secret service SBU. Last week, a drone hit the National Academy of Sciences, which is only around 300 meters from the German embassy.

Difficult defense against new drones

Ukraine is having difficulty defending itself against the new jet-powered drones. They fly much faster and higher than previous propeller-driven models. To date, the Ukrainians have relied either on ground-based systems, whose ammunition is scarce and expensive, or on combat aircraft. The Ukrainians are therefore working hard on inexpensive solutions. According to Zelenskyj, several companies are currently developing interceptor drones that should fly fast enough.

The Ukrainian economy is under pressure. Exports are hampered by the Russian blockade of Odessa's ports and the largest steel factories have stopped production after rocket attacks. All of this leads to financial disruption. The Ukrainian government continues to raise new financing gaps.

On the front, however, things aren't looking bad for the defenders at the moment. In recent months, the Ukrainian army has been able to reclaim terrain in its so-called “Operation Vivaldi,” thereby throwing back the Russian advance on the last remaining fortresses in Donbass.