A corner restaurant in São Bernardo do Campo, once the Detroit of Brazil in the industrial belt around São Paulo: tiled floors, photos on the walls, wooden tables. It is the realm of Júno Rodrigues, known as "Gijo", with a pot belly, a fiery red T-shirt, his fingers crooked like pipe wrenches. He was once a metal worker for one of the many car manufacturers here, then he changed careers. His specialty today: Chuletas Paulistas - thick-cut, one-kilo pork chops with fries and sauce.
“Brazil owes a lot to these chops,” he says and serves. His chops made the man full and happy, who gave rights and freedom to workers like him and paved Brazil's path to democracy - or at least that's how Gijo sees it. It's about his old union friend Lula, a regular at Gijo's restaurant and also President of Brazil for the third time.
Gijo points to a black and white photo: A bearded man stands on a table in the middle of a stadium, without a microphone, in front of thousands of workers, at the great general strike in 1979 - still in the midst of the military dictatorship. “Lula stood on a table and the workers shouted his words to the back so that he could be understood,” says Gijo. "Soldiers with batons and rifles stood around the stadium. I always say: This is exactly the photo that Lula took to become President of the Republic."
People-oriented and pragmatic
The union leader who made it into the presidential palace - close to the people and populist in his demeanor, pragmatic in his actions. 47 years after the historic photo, Lula stands in the same Vila Euclides stadium in São Bernardo do Campo. It's election time again. He is now 80 years old, his beard is white, his voice is even rougher. He takes stock.
"We have led 27 million people who lived in darkness and gloom as in the 17th century into the future," he shouts. And talks about how in his first two terms in office he brought water and electric light to the poor northeast of the country and used social programs to lift millions of people out of hunger and poverty "so that the children can learn and eat."
Brazil's "Yes, we can" moment.
Born into a family of agricultural workers, Lula combined groundbreaking social programs with market-friendly economic policies. Brazil experienced golden years in the early 2000s, also supported by the global hunger for raw materials. It was Brazil's "Yes, we can" moment.
Lula is relying on this past, but also on a present with low unemployment, growing exports and significantly less deforestation in the Amazon. But is that enough to secure him a historic fourth term?
"His social policy has left a clear mark, but it has reached its limits," says Lincoln Secco. The historian and author is considered one of the most renowned experts on the history of the left in Brazil. Brazil's economy is growing - it increased by 3.2 percent in 2023 and even by 3.4 percent in 2024. However, many Brazilians have the feeling that nothing gets through to them. Eight out of ten households are in debt. High interest rates slow down investments and at the same time put a strain on government finances. The OECD forecasts slower economic growth of 2.0 percent for 2026.
"Lula's policies offer little vision of the future for those workers who experienced social advancement during the PT governments - but are now stuck in precarious, poorly paid jobs and still have to work as Uber drivers at night," says Secco. "They are left with the feeling that they are losers."
“We don’t fit in anyone’s backyard.”
Lula still has high approval ratings, but at the same time almost half of the population rejects him. Previous corruption scandals also weigh on the Workers' Party. Although the verdict for alleged bribery against Lula, which landed him in prison for 580 days in 2018, was completely annulled due to bias on the part of the judges: for his opponents he remains "Lula Ladrão" - "Lula, the thief".
Rise, deep fall and still the spectacular comeback in 2022 and now again chances for a fourth term in office: “I think all of this has only given Lula more political weight,” says Secco. "Today he is one of the most important leaders of the Global South." And probably the last statesman of the old school in a Latin America that is moving ever further to the right, in which a majority of Trump allies recently won elections.
Lula insists on Brazil's sovereignty and a multipolar world order. "We don't fit into anyone's backyard," he declared at the UN General Assembly at the end of September, referring to the Trump administration, which has once again declared Latin America to be the geopolitical backyard in the global competition with China.
Important partner in South America
Brazil is part of the BRICS group and China's largest trading partner; the Mercosur trade agreement has just been concluded with the EU. Even though Lula initially raised eyebrows in Europe with his positions on Ukraine and the Middle East conflict and his mediation efforts in the crisis in Venezuela clearly failed, he remains one of the most important partners in South America. "Especially when it comes to questions about consolidating democracy, the need for a rules-based world order," says the foreign policy journalist for the largest media group Globo, Marcelo Lins, "but also when it comes to climate protection and sustainability issues and the expansion of trade relations."
Lula led Brazil back onto the international stage, while he himself lost charisma and approval within the country. The fact that he hasn't set up a successor is certainly a point of criticism, says Chuleta chef and ex-trade unionist Gijo in São Bernardo do Campo. But a political figure like Lula simply doesn't exist often in history - and in this election, democracy is once again at stake.
