On October 4th, Brazil will decide how closely it will bind itself to the USA - with potentially direct consequences for the EU-Mercosur agreement.
Salvador. On October 4th, Brazil will elect a new president. Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Lula da Silva are facing each other as the most promising candidates. They are roughly equal in the polls.
Which of them wins the election will determine how Brazil positions itself between Washington, Beijing and Europe over the next four years. When it comes to foreign policy, the two candidates represent significantly different courses.
There are two images that foreshadow the future relationship between Brasília and Washington.
The first photo shows Bolsonaro, taken on May 26 in the Oval Office of the White House. The eldest son of the imprisoned ex-president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, stands behind US President Trump. The American president is sitting at his desk and has a broad grin on his face. The 45-year-old Bolsonaro, neatly dressed in a yellow and blue striped tie with a dark thread, looks almost like a boy in a confirmation suit.
The other photo shows Brazil's incumbent President Lula with Trump in the White House. He was there two weeks before Bolsonaro. Lula sits leaning back in his chair with his legs crossed. He speaks, his gestures appear self-confident. Trump sits opposite him and listens intently. Both men are 80 years old.
The conversation is about the punitive tariffs that the USA has imposed on Brazil. Trump later wrote on social networks that he had met “the very dynamic president of Brazil.” The meeting “went very well”.
The outcome of the election will decide the political future of the country
The election outcome has significance far beyond Brazil. The country is the second-largest economy in the Western Hemisphere with a gross domestic product of about $2.64 trillion, a global heavyweight in agricultural products, energy and critical raw materials, and China's most important economic partner in South America. With 215 million people, a third of Latin America's population lives there.
The election will therefore also decide which political direction the largest country in Latin America takes in a phase in which almost the entire region has moved to the right. Apart from Mexico, Brazil is the only large country south of the USA that is still led by a left-center government.
In addition, not only the president will be elected on Sunday, but also all 27 governors, all representatives and two thirds of the senators. A possible runoff election is scheduled for October 25th.
A look at the politicians Lula and Bolsonaro helps to understand how different Brazil's future could be.
Different foreign policy ideas
The 80-year-old incumbent Lula da Silva is trying to become president for the fourth time. Politically and economically he is a social democrat who strives for a strong state with which he can redistribute socially.
In terms of foreign policy, he follows the Brazilian tradition of multilateralism. Under him, Brazil talks and trades with all world and regional powers without ideological preferences. Lula gets along just as well with China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping as he does with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Flávio Bolsonaro wants to reach the right-of-center voter potential, as his father did surprisingly successfully in 2018. Economically he is liberal and wants to reduce the state's influence on the economy.
In foreign policy, he has announced that he will unconditionally support Brazil as Trump's close ally. He offered the American president and US companies exclusive access to Brazil's rare earth deposits. After China, Brazil has the largest deposits of rare earth metals, but has hardly developed any mines yet.
As fundamentally different as the alternatives appear when it comes to foreign policy, most Brazilians have little interest in the topic. The majority are concerned about the lack of public safety, the rising cost of living and corruption.
However, Brazilian farmers and the export industry are suffering from the high tariffs that Trump has imposed on Brazil. Geopolitics cannot be completely left out of the election campaign. Donald Trump made sure of that himself.
The conflict between Trump and Brazil was sparked by the criminal proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro. Trump described the investigations against his political ally as a “witch hunt” and increased the pressure on Brazil. The US imposed high tariffs on Brazilian imports and sanctions against individual members of the Supreme Court.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the ex-president's third eldest son, moved to the USA despite his parliamentary mandate to lobby in Washington and Florida for his father's release and to increase the pressure on the Brazilian government and judiciary.
Trump and Bolsonaro would move together
It is quite possible that Trump will try to influence the election results in Brazil before the runoff election. It would be a triumph for him in terms of foreign policy if Bolsonaro wins the election.
Washington's course towards Latin America has changed in recent months: The USA wants to expand its influence in the region again and, above all, push back China.
Brazil would certainly join the “Shield of the Americas” under a right-wing president. Trump founded this initiative six months ago as a security and defense policy alliance intended to consolidate US influence in the region. Together, Washington and its partners want to take action against drug cartels and organized crime, control migration flows and limit the influence of China and Russia.
Trump could also conclude a bilateral free trade and investment agreement with Brazil under Bolsonaro's presidency, as he did with Argentina in February. It guarantees the USA privileges in market access and intellectual property protection in Argentina.
This deal would pose a significant threat to the EU. These are bad prospects for the agreement that has just been initiated between the EU and the Mercosur member states Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and, since 2024, Bolivia.
Brazil remains a geopolitical player in its own right
Regardless of who wins the election, Brazil's foreign policy course can be changed less radically than the election campaign suggests. Even a President Bolsonaro could not simply align Brazil's foreign policy with Washington.
This was already evident under Jair Bolsonaro. Although he initially attacked China ideologically, he soon had to moderate his confrontational course. China is by far the largest sales market for agricultural products from Brazil.
For example, the Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Huawei remained an important supplier for Brazil's 5G networks. Trump had expressly asked Bolsonaro to ban the company. Despite his ingratiation with Trump, Bolsonaro received little significant support from Washington as president.
Lula has also shown that he is less confrontational with Trump than he likes to claim. Instead, he relies on negotiations. So far, he has managed to get concessions from Washington every time.
