Brian Armstrong maintains his prediction of $400,000 for Bitcoin by 2030

Same heading, same figure. Interviewed on September 28 on Nicole Lapin's Money Rehab podcast, Brian Armstrong confirmed that he was still targeting $400,000 for Bitcoin by 2030. The general director of Coinbase relies on four-year cycles punctuated by halving. Long-time owners know this mechanic by heart.

Its calculation is in one line: approximately three times Bitcoin's previous all-time high, the peak of $126,000 in October 2025. The target represents nearly five times the current price, which is hovering around $84,000. The manager immediately attached a formal warning.

Key Points

Coinbase leader still expects BTC to reach $400,000 before the end of the decade

His reasoning is based on the repetition of the post-halving pattern and a threefold multiplication of the previous peak

Such a price would bring the network's valuation to around $8.2 trillion

Other houses aim much higher, while Bitwise considers the cycle theory outdated since the arrival of ETFs

Brian Armstrong and Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles

There is nothing mysterious about the mechanism. Every 210,000 blocks, or roughly four years, the miners' reward is halved: this is halving. The last thus reduced the issue to 3.125 BTC per block in April 2024. The next will bring it down to 1.5625 BTC in spring 2028. Each contraction in new supply has so far preceded a surge in prices. A correction of about a year then followed.

Brian Armstrong applies this grid to the next round. If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin would approach three times its previous peak by 2030. The valuation of the network would therefore reach around 8,200 billion dollars, compared to 2,500 billion in October 2025. The boss of Coinbase took care to border his remarks. However, he says he is unable to predict the price and speaks of a “possible outcome” if the cycle repeats itself. This is a personal opinion, not an official position of Coinbase.

Bitcoin at $400,000, an almost wise forecast

Compared to the objectives circulating among asset managers, the Coinbase manager's target has the air of moderation. At ARK Invest, Cathie Wood expects $1.5 million in 2030 in her bullish scenario. On the other hand, its central scenario stops at around $710,000. Michael Saylor mentions $21 million per bitcoin by 2046 to justify the accumulation led by Strategy.

The four-year cycle is no longer unanimous. Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, has been arguing since 2025 that this rhythm is dead. Indeed, the arrival of spot ETFs would have killed it, as would the demand for corporate treasuries. The argument is arithmetic. The daily issue is around 450 bitcoins, while American spot ETFs now hold more than a million in total. The supply shock caused by halving weighs less and less heavily in the face of these flows.

No one is neutral here. The boss of a platform whose income depends on the volumes exchanged has a direct interest in the price rising. Coinbase itself also holds several thousand bitcoins on its balance sheet. However, its projection has the merit of remaining within verifiable orders of magnitude. It is even more measured than the million dollars that he himself mentioned in 2025.