Bitcoin hits $87,000 after disappointing US jobs report

Bad news, good session. Bitcoin hit $87,000 yesterday after a US employment report fell well short of expectations. This Saturday morning, it costs 84,600 dollars.

Bets on a Fed rate hike in late October fell as low as 13% yesterday. The September peak is still holding up, as is the bull market and its profit-taking. The Fed remains the boss of the market, and its next decision falls on October 28.

American employment at 29,000: why a failure makes bitcoin smile

The American economy created 29,000 jobs in September, compared to around 90,000 expected. Furthermore, unemployment climbs to 4.2%, compared to 4.1% expected.

On September 4, the August report showed 162,000 creations compared to 56,000 expected. It had sent bitcoin below $80,000 and the US ten-year rate at 4.80%.

Yesterday, this same yield initially fell by around 7 basis points, towards 5.17%, before the session turned around.

For traders, fewer jobs means less pressure on wages, and therefore fewer reasons for the Fed to raise rates. However, each increase makes credit more expensive and weighs on assets that rely on liquidity, including bitcoin.

On the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a hike at the October meeting was around 70% at the start of the week. It fell to 35% after Wednesday's PCE (the inflation index monitored by the Fed, softer than expected). Yesterday, right after the jobs report, it plunged to 13% according to CoinDesk. It then rose to 22% when the session turned around.

Bitcoin at $84,600: the peak near $87,000 did not survive the evening

In the minutes following the report, bitcoin gained around 2% and crossed $86,000. It then briefly touched 87,000. The September high, at $87,354, was not broken. Last night, the price fell below $84,000 before returning to around $84,600.

The derivatives have heated up. According to CoinGlass, $433 million in crypto positions were liquidated in twenty-four hours as of this morning. Buying positions, swept away by the fall below 84,000 dollars, represent 322 million. The remaining $112 million came from sellers caught in the surge that followed the report. Financing rates, which buyers pay to sellers to maintain leverage, have surged.

The market is also regaining its appetite for risk. The share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached 58.7% this morning. Conversely, that of USDT, Tether’s stablecoin, slipped to 6.3%.

In terms of forecasts, Citi has just raised its twelve-month target from $82,000 to $113,000. The bank is banking on the return of flows to ETFs. However, these funds lost 148.7 million dollars on Wednesday, after nine sessions of entries totaling 3.1 billion. At 21Shares, Matt Mena places the next resistance at $90,000, then at $97,000.

Fed: 3.75% to 4% rate, and an increase still possible on October 28

On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised its key rate by 0.25 points, to 3.75%-4%. Its president, Kevin Warsh, justified the gesture by inflation considered too high. In the committee's projections, the median member sees a rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026, another increase.

Inflation is not giving in. According to Fox Business, the PCE published for August is 3.4% over twelve months, and 3.0% excluding energy and food. This is less than the 3.6% estimated by Kevin Warsh on September 16. The committee still projects total inflation of 3.7% for all of 2026. Before the jobs report, markets were betting on an increase at each of the two remaining meetings, on October 28 and December 9.

October is no longer the central scenario, December remains open. CoinDesk cites a 25% chance that the Fed will not raise rates at all by the end of the year. There therefore remains three out of four chances of at least one increase.

Rates, dollar, gold, Nvidia: the rest of the market plays the same part

The dollar is holding up. The DXY index remains above 102 and gold is hovering just below $4,200 an ounce. On the other hand, American oil (WTI) lost 4% in twenty-four hours, below 90 dollars per barrel.

Stocks welcomed the report. Nasdaq futures gained about 1.2% before the open. Nvidia hit a record yesterday at $237.88 per share, or around $5.7 trillion in capitalization, reports Decrypt. Its board also added $150 billion to its stock buyback program.

Europe is squeaking more. The yield gap between French and German bonds widened to 152 basis points yesterday. This is the highest since the end of 2011, compared to around 190 at the peak of the crisis. Paris is preparing its 2027 budget with this gap in its back.

Bitcoin this weekend: the levels and meetings that matter

The stock markets are closed until Monday, and bitcoin alone continues to trade. Above, $87,354 (September's high) opens the way to 90,000, then 97,000. Below, $84,000 gave way overnight, and $82,000 has served as a floor for two weeks.

Bitmine's Tom Lee still sees a bull market in progress, despite Wednesday's ETF releases.