Brian Armstrong maintains his $400,000 Bitcoin goal by 2030 despite Coinbase struggles

The bet remains intact despite the crypto winter. Brian Armstrong still estimates Bitcoin to be “reasonable” at $400,000 by 2030, compared to around $77,000 today. The boss of Coinbase considers that the low point of the cycle has passed and that the next halving could revive the market. That confidence contrasts with his company's recent struggles: Coinbase cut 14% of its workforce in the spring and posted a net loss of $359.5 million in the second quarter.

Key Points

Brian Armstrong maintains his $400,000 Bitcoin target in 2030

Reaching this level would require multiplying the current price by approximately 5.2

A decisive procedural vote on the Clarity Act is scheduled in the Senate on September 15

Coinbase develops tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts in parallel

Bitcoin at $400,000: Brian Armstrong bets on the end of the decline

In an interview with CNBC, Brian Armstrong explained that the bearish phase has now lasted for about a year, in line with the four-year cycle traditionally associated with Bitcoin. After passing around $60,000, he estimates that the last low point is now behind the market.

The manager is also counting on the next halving, expected in 2028. This event, the exact date of which depends on the speed of block production, will reduce the miners' reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. The theoretical annual emission would thus fall from around 164,000 to 82,000 bitcoins.

The effect of halving should not, however, be considered automatic. Each reduction concerns a smaller quantity compared to the stock already in circulation: new issues currently represent around 0.8% of the existing supply and would fall to around 0.4% after 2028. ETF flows, monetary conditions and institutional demand now weigh more on the price.

Going from $77,000 to $400,000 before the end of 2030 would require an average increase of close to 46% per year for just over four years. The objective remains ambitious, but lower than the historical annualized rate of Bitcoin, a comparison which obviously does not guarantee anything for the future.

Clarity Act: Coinbase is already preparing its “everything exchange”

Brian Armstrong is even more confident about American regulations. The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote on September 15 that could determine the future of the Clarity Act. The text aims to more clearly distribute the jurisdiction of the SEC and the CFTC over digital assets.

The main disagreement still raised concerns the ethical rules applicable to the Trump family's crypto activities. He affirms that discussions are progressing, but the chances of adoption remain uncertain: the Myriad prediction market only gives a 17% probability to promulgation in 2026.

The boss of Coinbase nevertheless expects to obtain more regulatory clarity within the month, even if the text fails. The SEC and CFTC could act through regulations or exemptions, but these administrative decisions would provide a less durable framework than a law passed by Congress.

Coinbase is therefore moving forward without delay. The crypto platform prepares the trading of tokenized stocks with automatic dividend payment. It also offers regulated access to American crypto perpetuals since the opening granted in May by the CFTC, while it has asked the SEC for authorization to launch perpetuals on stocks.