In the Week 4 edition of "Thursday Night Football," the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an old-school AFC North clash.
The Browns have won two straight games after being dismantled by the Jacksonville Jaguars in their season opener. Both of those wins came via late game-winning touchdown passes, followed by the defense bowing up and holding the opponent down on the final possession.
Pittsburgh also enters at 2-1, having won a pair of one-possession games sandwiching a rather embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots. Pittsburgh's defense has been quite good, while its offense came alive for the first time this past weekend against the division rival Cincinnati Bengals.
Which of these two teams will improve to 3-1 and at least temporarily take over first place in the division? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
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Where to watch Browns vs. Steelers live
Date: Thursday, Oct. 1 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
Streaming: Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Steelers -2.5, O/U 38.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
When the Steelers have the ball
Pittsburgh's offense looked pitiful in both its season-opening win against the Atlanta Falcons and its Week 2 loss against the Patriots, but things changed quite a bit this past week against the Bengals.
In Weeks 1 and 2, the Steelers gained a combined total of just 499 yards. That was 350 through the air and 149 on the ground. They produced 31 first downs and turned the ball over three times. In Week 3 alone, they gained almost as many total yards (411), and that was nearly true both through the air (273) and on the ground (138). They turned it over once, with an interception going through a receiver's hands and landing in a defender's lap.
Cleveland's defense hasn't quite been as torn up over the last two weeks as it was by the Jaguars in Week 1, but it's not like it's been a shutdown unit. The Browns gave up 313 yards to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that has looked fairly ordinary this year (they had 282 yards against the Bengals and 243 against the Vikings), and gave up 360 to the Panthers while benefiting from three different turnovers on downs.
The Steelers will once again be without Rico Dowdle here, which means it'll be the Jaylen Warren show in the backfield. Warren played 90% of the snaps last week and tallied 20 touches for 176 yards. Though it could have had plenty more if a long touchdown run hadn't been called back or he hadn't slipped in the open field on what would have been another long touchdown. Cleveland has allowed opponents to gain 4.5 yards per rush this season, while the Steelers have gained 4.3 per rush themselves. Pittsburgh has run for more yards with each game, however, going from 58 yards to 91 to 138.
Aaron Rodgers has completed only 58.4% of his passes this year at a minuscule average of 6.2 yards per attempt, and most of that production came last Sunday against the Bengals. He has struggled to connect with receivers downfield, finding much more "success" in the underneath zones with checkdowns to Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington and more. The Browns have generally been stingy against yards after the catch, allowing opponents only 278 so far and a below-average 4.3 per reception. The Steelers will need to find ways to break tackles underneath to create yardage if Rodgers isn't going to hit on his deep balls.
When the Browns have the ball
Deshaun Watson has not played nearly as badly this year as in his previous seasons with the Browns. He's actually completed 68.2% of his passes at 7.2 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns against just one interception. He's led game-winning drives in the fourth quarter of each of the last two games.
The Browns have struggled to run the ball so far, checking in at 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Those numbers are propped up by Watson's scrambling, however. Quinshon Judkins leads the backfield with 42 carries (no other back or receiver has more than four) and has averaged just 3.0 yards per tote. His best game came in the opener, at 3.9 per carry. The Browns cannot run the ball whatsoever.
The Steelers played extremely strong defense against the Falcons and Cooper Rush in the opener, but have looked slightly more vulnerable over the last two weeks against the Patriots and Bengals. What they're getting by on right now is turnovers, forcing two in each of the last two games, including a game-clinching fumble against Joe Burrow this past week.
Pittsburgh is likely to stop the run here, forcing the Browns to beat the Steelers through the air. That depends on Watson continuing to play at the level he has over the last two weeks rather than the one he's shown for the majority of his time in Cleveland (and that he showed in Week 1, frankly). It's hard to trust that he'll do that, given the extensive track record of poor play.
The effort will be made easier by the absence of Joey Porter Jr. (traded to Dallas late Wednesday night) and the potential absence of Jalen Ramsey (listed as questionable with a wrist injury), but if the Steelers can generate pressure (the Browns are 28th in opponent's pressure rate), then they can make up for the injuries in the defensive backfield. T.J. Watt could have a field day here and wreck the Browns' offensive plans.
Prediction
