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Back《法兰克福汇报》与《新苏黎世报》:中美博弈下的“逢场作戏”与双雄时代
《法兰克福汇报》与《新苏黎世报》:中美博弈下的“逢场作戏”与双雄时代
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德国之声2 hours agoPolitics5 min readChinaView translation

《法兰克福汇报》与《新苏黎世报》:中美博弈下的“逢场作戏”与双雄时代

媒体评论分析特朗普与习近平在华盛顿会晤背后的战略博弈与地缘政治影响

Quick Look

德国媒体评论指出,特朗普与习近平在华盛顿的会晤更多是政治作秀。分析认为,中国通过稀土等筹码在贸易战中占据主动,中美正进入“双雄鼎立”的长期竞争时代,人工智能成为双方博弈的新战场,且缺乏战略稳定框架。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

中美两国在贸易、科技及地缘政治领域存在长期竞争。特朗普与习近平近期在华盛顿举行会晤,引发媒体对双方战略意图的讨论。

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(德国之声中文网)《法兰克福汇报》就华盛顿特习会发表评论写道,特朗普总统喜欢以羞辱和威胁手段对待美国的传统盟友,但对于中国领导人习近平的来访,这位美国总统却刻意摆出极大的敬意,并以“伟大领袖”和“朋友”称呼这位共产党领导人。但除此之外,中美双方并没有达成实质性的政治协议吗。这篇题为《习近平只是在逢场作戏》的评论写道:

“特朗普之所以要避免同中国发生正面冲突,原因有很多:首先,这位美国总统喜欢以其自恋视角来看待国际政治,尤其喜欢外人的讨好和奉承。特朗普认为,他同各大国领导人的私人友谊,足以左右世界政治。而习近平和普京则对此暗自发笑。毕竟习近平和普京都很清楚各自的战略利益,他们只是和特朗普‘逢场作戏’,试图操控这位西方阵营曾经的领导人。

其次,特朗普刚一开始其第二个总统任期,就遭遇了习近平的下马威。作为坚定的贸易保护主义者,特朗普在其内阁对华鹰派的鼓动之下,发起了针对中国的贸易战。但中国领导人习近平对此早已准备,立即叫停了对美国的稀土出口。特朗普很快就败下阵来,此前宣布的关税也基本全盘收回。习近平让特朗普意识到,美国总统的权力也是有界限的。这一次双方还在华盛顿就延长休战期做出了安排。”

《法兰克福汇报》评论认为,北京凭借稀土等筹码迫使美国在贸易战中主动退让,而伊朗战争又令美国无暇他顾,因此特朗普在对华问题上变得越来越“谨言慎行”,这一点在台湾问题上表现的尤为突出:

“事实上,特朗普当局在尽力避免谈及台湾问题,并已推迟就一项价值140亿美元的对台军售案做出决定。显然,特朗普总统的确很重视习近平就台湾问题发出的警告。习近平曾表示,任何在涉台问题的错误举动,都将会带来危险的后果。此前,特朗普甚至称这项旨在加强台湾防空能力的对台军售案是同北京谈判的筹码。这种言论想必会在台北引起极大的担忧,毕竟这等于赋予了习近平在对台军售问题上的发言权。

一旦台湾遭遇危险,特朗普是否会出手相助,安全问题专家们对此普遍表示怀疑。因为,特朗普对美国利益的定义非同以往。盟友关系本来是美国作为超级大国的特殊优势,但特朗普对此显然不屑一顾。

当然,特朗普并没有低估习近平的野心。这一点在有关人工智能的讨论中也得到了充分体现。特朗普拒绝对人工智能研发进行管控,也并没有隐瞒他这样做的动机:‘谁嬴了人工智能,谁就赢得了一切。’这位美国总统不愿放弃美国高科技企业在该领域取得的领先地位,也深知中国正在快速追赶。而这同样也是一种不信任的表现:特朗普并不认为中国会出于伦理考量放慢人工智能的研发速度。人工智能已经成为中美博弈的新战场。中美冲突只是被推迟了而已。”

“这是一个双雄鼎立的时代”

对于中国党和国家领导人习近平的美国之行,《新苏黎世报》评论写道,中美两国围绕经济、科技、能源和地缘政治的竞争非但没有减弱,而且会长期持续:

“没有任何一方拥有绝对优势:美国在一些核心领域领先,中国则在另一些领域表现出色。美国无可争议的主导地位已经成为过去。但这并不意味着中国能够取代美国,成为新的世界霸主。更确切地说,这是一个双雄鼎立的时代,双方都有能力让对方的计划落空,但却没有任何一方强大到足以迫使对方接受自己制定的游戏规则。也正因为如此,制定‘战略稳定’框架就显得更为重要了。如果没有这样的防护栏,擦枪走火导致冲突升级的风险就将越来越高。未来几年内,中美竞争将对世界产生深刻影响。

就目前而言,中美双方仍愿意开展对话。习近平飞抵华盛顿时,特朗普亲赴机场迎接。特朗普很擅长以这种作秀的方式展示友好姿态,而习近平也愿意予以配合。这是他们两人之间的一场游戏,他们也都确信,自己将是笑到最后的那一位。”

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 中美在人工智能领域的博弈将持续加剧

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 特朗普在台湾遭遇危机时是否会提供军事援助?
  • 中美是否能建立有效的战略稳定框架?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

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