(Central News Agency, London, comprehensive foreign news report on the 18th) Two people close to the Iranian regime told the Financial Times that Iran is evaluating expanding the scope of its counterattack if the war escalates. Options include attacking U.S. military targets in Europe and studying the possibility of attacking underwater fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
After the United States and Israel jointly launched air strikes on Iran in February, Iran immediately launched retaliatory attacks against countries in the Middle East that had U.S. military facilities or stationed there, triggering a war. The memorandum of understanding signed by the two sides in June fell apart last month, and the fighting escalated again.
The Financial Times reported that two people familiar with the situation revealed that the Iranian military has evaluated attacking U.S. military facilities in Bulgaria and other southeastern European countries. One of the people added that Cyprus was also a potential counterattack target.
These threats reflect the current tough atmosphere in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly believe that another war is "not a question of if, but sooner or later."
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military commanders warned that if a new round of all-out conflict breaks out, Iran will move away from its past only attacks on U.S. military installations, energy facilities and infrastructure in the Middle East and further target more distant targets.
Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense and security think tank, pointed out that the threat posed by Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and other regions is "real but limited."
Kaushal said that Iran can deploy medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shahab series against U.S. facilities in southern and southeastern Europe, but these missiles have limited lethality in long-distance attacks.
If the United States escalates the war, Iran threatens to retaliate with "no limits"
People familiar with the matter said that Iran's counterattack will depend on the actions of the United States.
In response to U.S. President Trump’s statement last month that for every Iranian ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant. One of the people familiar with the matter said that if Trump keeps his word, the Iranian authorities are ready to expand the conflict.
A second source said that if the United States strikes too hard, Iran's response will be "unlimited." He said: "As long as the United States goes too far, Iran will protect itself at any cost, and may even transcend the Middle East and directly attack Europe."
Sources pointed out that Iran's attack on the US military base in Jordan last month, which killed three US servicemen, was the most precise long-range attack the country has ever carried out, and it also proved their ability to hit remote targets.
"This is also a warning to Europe: you can also be targeted by missiles and you need to know whose side you are on in this war," the first source said. "If something really goes wrong, like an attack on our infrastructure, the war will spread beyond the Middle East and into Europe," he added.
The memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June fell apart last month when Tehran attacked multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides accused each other of violating the agreement, which eventually led to multiple rounds of retaliatory attacks and the United States once again blocked Iranian ports.
Weeks of diplomatic efforts have so far failed to reopen the maritime chokepoint or bring a ceasefire to wider negotiations.
Douglas Barrie, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said: "Iran's attempt to attack Diego Garcia (in the Indian Ocean) this year shows that they have weapons with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers."
"The question is, how many of these weapons does Iran have? Whether they would actually be willing to use even a small number of ballistic missiles just to build momentum is hard to say."
He said: "The biggest risk is that the missile fails or is intercepted. Even if it does attack, what will you gain? The farther the distance, the lower the hit accuracy."
The power of hard-liners is rising, and they say, "I'm crazier than you."
Some people within the Iranian regime are worried that Tehran is overestimating the leverage it has and is playing with fire; however, hard-liners within the system argue that the United States cannot be trusted to fulfill any agreement. Only by forcing Washington to pay a greater price can Iran ensure that the United States implements the final agreement.
Among them is the former Revolutionary Guards commander who was assassinated last week by Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba. Mohsen Rezaei, appointed by Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's top security official.
Iranian analysts believe that this personnel transfer means that figures such as current chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will be marginalized in a short period of time, making the prospects for a lasting agreement even bleaker.
