Tigray's renewed clashes threaten to ignite a broader regional conflict in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea

Clashes broke out again in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. The Tigray People's Liberation Front forces launched a large-scale attack on September 23, and there were reports of clashes in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. This represents pressure on the fragile peace produced by the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022, which ended the recent Tigray war.

But the crucial question goes beyond Tigray's borders: Could this conflict be intertwined with the wars and rivalries that are already destabilizing the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region?

Changes in the balance of power

British journalist Martin Plaut, an expert on the Horn of Africa, sees this very danger and told DW that "a conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia may also attract Sudanese forces into the war and thus the entire region."

Jalali Getachew Biro, an expert on East African affairs at ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project), confirms that this conflict cannot be viewed in isolation. The organization for which Peru works is an independent conflict monitoring and study organization that collects and analyzes data on political violence and armed conflicts around the world.

“Regional power dynamics have changed, and this is exactly what we see in Ethiopia as well: different regional and international actors are siding with different sides. This is clearly evident within Ethiopian territory and in neighboring countries, such as Sudan and Somalia. So the situation in Ethiopia is not an isolated conflict in the Horn of Africa. Rather, it also includes neighboring countries and affects the entire Horn of Africa region.”

The African Union (AU) also warned on September 23 of further destabilization. The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Yusuf, called for the cessation of all steps, which might lead to aggravation of tensions, in addition to holding new talks on the basis of the Pretoria Agreement. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo is expected to support diplomatic efforts.

Yesterday's enemies, today's allies

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has allied itself with six other Ethiopian armed groups seeking to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Among these groups is the Amhara-affiliated Fano militia, which was fighting against the Tigray People's Liberation Front in the last war.

This coalition is not a unified military force. Its members pursue different political and regional interests. However, the government may be exposed to pressure on several fronts at the same time.

The Afar region is of special importance. The main transportation route between Ethiopia, a landlocked country, and Djibouti passes through this region and a large portion of international trade is handled through it. Continued clashes could jeopardize this economic lifeline. Eritrea is located behind the Afar region.

Eritrea: the first link in the chain

In the Tigray War, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, Eritrean forces fought alongside the Ethiopian federal government against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. But relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated since then. Ethiopia's efforts to reach the Red Sea have further exacerbated tensions.

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​supporting anti-government armed groups. Asmara rejects these accusations. The extent of direct Eritrean involvement is difficult to determine independently.

However, Eritrea's direct intervention would radically change the nature of the conflict and link the conflict in Tigray to the war in neighboring Sudan.

Sudan: a potential hotbed of conflict

A war has been raging in Sudan since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by warlord Hemedti. This conflict, in which several regional powers are involved, has caused the outbreak of one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world.

According to British journalist Martin Plaut, Ethiopia and Eritrea are already indirectly involved in the conflict on opposite sides, and he says: “The Ethiopians stand with the Rapid Support Forces and Hemedti.” He continues: "There are strong indications of the existence of a base in western Ethiopia through which RSF fighters are supplied and trained."

The United Arab Emirates is also accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, but Abu Dhabi denies this. According to Blaut, Eritrea, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia support the Sudanese army.

If Ethiopia and Eritrea enter into direct conflict, the conflicting Sudanese parties may attempt to exploit the new situation. Supply routes and military strategies may change, while Sudan's eastern borders will be subject to additional pressure. “Then it will turn into a comprehensive conflict in the entire region,” Plaut warns, anticipating a series of reactions.

Connection to the Red Sea

The series of potential conflicts does not end with Sudan. The Bab al-Mandab Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Eritrea and Djibouti are located on the western side, while Yemen is located on the eastern side.

The war in Yemen has shown how insecurity in the Red Sea can affect international maritime traffic and draw external forces into the conflict. Therefore, the location of Eritrea and the port of Assab give the country strategic importance that goes far beyond the borders of Tigray.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also strengthened their political, economic, and security influence in the Horn of Africa in recent years. Through these networks, various conflicts can be linked to money, weapons, logistics and political influence.

Therefore, the outbreak of a regional war is not inevitable at all. There is no unified military alliance extending from Tigray to the Gulf states. Armed groups in Ethiopia pursue different interests, and Eritrea may avoid the risks of direct intervention, and the warring parties in Sudan have their own priorities.

Dark memories of the last Tigray war

The 2020-2022 Tigray war claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions. The Pretoria Agreement ended major combat operations, but many political and territorial disputes remained unresolved.

Now the clashes have renewed in Tigray. Plaut warns of dire humanitarian consequences, telling DW: "There is a real danger that this will turn into a very bloody conflict. After all, 600,000 people died in the last war in Tigray. Let's hope things don't go that way this time."

Therefore, what is crucial is whether the conflict can be prevented from gaining new fronts and external supporters. Because then Ethiopia's new war will not be just an internal Ethiopian conflict; Rather, it may become part of a broader regional conflict system extending from Sudan, through the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, all the way to Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula.

Prepared in Arabic by: M.A.M